June 9 votes: narrow lead for Swiss initiatives to rein in healthcare costs

On June 9, the Swiss will vote on two initiatives aimed at capping health costs. KEYSTONE/© KEYSTONE / MICHAEL BUHOLZER

Two initiatives aimed at capping health insurance costs in Switzerland have the backing of a slim majority of voters, according to the first nationwide poll ahead of the votes on June 9. Another referendum on a new electricity law meanwhile has big support, while an anti-vaccination initiative has little chance of passing.

Will Swiss voters come out in support for people who struggle to pay their monthly health insurance premiums? For now, voters seem to accept the two different solutions put forward by the Centre Party and the Social Democratic Party, according to the results of the first poll, carried out in mid-April by the gfs.bern institute on behalf of the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (SBC). But the early lead may not be enough.

The survey published on Friday showed that 56% of respondents support the Social Democrats’ initiative to limit health insurance premiums to 10% of income. A total of 40% of respondents are against the idea, and 4% are undecided.

The Swiss Abroad are fans of the proposal: 67% support it and 29% are against. “For [Swiss] expatriates, it is easier to show solidarity with those who have difficulty paying their healthcare costs, as they are less concerned about who will benefit from the measures taken and who will suffer,” said Lukas Golder, a political scientist at gfs.bern. He points out, however, that the trend could still be reversed.

The initiative to reduce premiums is causing a gulf between left- and right-wing supporters. Voters for the Greens and the Social Democrats clearly support the proposal, while supporters of the right-wing Swiss People’s Party, the centre-right Radical-Liberal Party and the Liberal Green Party largely oppose it. Those from the Centre Party, on the other hand, are divided, leaning slightly towards a no vote.

Unsurprisingly, people on low and extremely low incomes overwhelmingly support the initiative. They would also benefit from additional subsidies the most. The initiative also appeals to households on average incomes, but to a lesser extent. Very high earners (over CHF11,000 ($12,000) a month) are overwhelmingly against it.

Linguistic regions divided

The divide that opened up between young and old voters during the campaign for the 13th pension payment initiative, which was accepted in March, is not obvious in the current debate surrounding healthcare costs. All age groups tend to be in favour of capping health insurance premiums.

On the other hand, there are major differences between Switzerland’s linguistic regions. More than 70% of French- and Italian-speakers would accept the text, while only 50% of German-speakers say they would vote in favour.

In all, 88% of those surveyed say action is urgently needed, as health premiums have doubled over the past 20 years but salaries have not kept pace. This is the main argument put forward by the initiative campaigners. The risk that the state will raise taxes to finance any additional subsidies is the main argument heard against the text.

gfs.bern experts say the no camp should gain ground during the vote campaign. “The debate is currently focusing more on the problems raised by the initiative than on the benefits it would bring,” says Golder.

Because of the divide between the linguistic regions and the fact that health insurance payments vary from canton to canton, the initiative may also fail to win the approval of the majority of cantons, which will be needed in order to pass, says gfs.bern. 

Mixed start for healthcare cost brake

The Centre Party’s proposal to ease health insurance premiums is less convincing. Its initiative provides for a brake on healthcare costs, which should rise in line with the economy and salaries. This brake would operate in the same way as the government’s spending brake. When healthcare costs rise by 20% more than wages a year, the government must take measures to bring costs down.

At present, 52% of respondents support the initiative, while 41% are against it and 7% are undecided.

Their proposal also generates less enthusiasm than the premium cap among the Swiss Abroad: 56% support the idea, 35% are against and 9% are undecided.

The Centre Party’s proposal has the backing of its supporters: 63% are behind the project. But it seems unable to convince other political groups. Only the Green Party narrowly supports it, while the majority of the other parties are against.

However, the text is immensely popular with people who are not affiliated to a party, as well as with people who distrust the government.

As with the Social Democrats’ initiative, there is a split between French- and Italian-speakers and German-speakers. The initiative failed to win a majority in German-speaking Switzerland, while 56% of French-speakers and 74% of Italian-speakers are in favour.

In all, 63% of those surveyed thought the initiative would bring all relevant Swiss healthcare stakeholders together to find ways of making cost savings. This is the most effective argument in favour of the initiative. But the argument that the healthcare sector should not be dependent on the economic situation is the one that works most against the initiative.

Political scientists at gfs.bern believe support for the Centre Party’s proposal should wane during the campaign, and it will get rejected on June 9. They point out that the debate is already focusing heavily on the initiative’s shortcomings. 

Massive support for electricity law

The poll found that 75% of voters intend to back the far-reaching reforms in the new electricity law, which aims to boost the development of renewable energies in Switzerland and secure the country’s electricity supply. Otherwise, 19% are against it and 6% are undecided.

Among the Swiss Abroad, 70% support the bill, 20% are against and 10% are undecided.

A clear majority of supporters from all parties, with the exception of the People’s Party, support the law. The right-wing party is calling for a no vote, but 48% of its supporters back the electricity law.

Arguments in favour of the initiative seem to be working. Many people think the law encourages the production of electricity locally, thereby reducing Switzerland’s reliance on foreign suppliers.

Consequently, gfs.bern expects this initiative to be accepted on June 9.

Vaccination initiative struggles

The “for freedom and physical integrity” initiative – commonly known as the “stop compulsory vaccination” initiative – is likely to be rejected on June 9, the poll revealed. In all, 70% of voters say they plan to reject the text, while 27% are in favour and 3% are undecided. Among the Swiss Abroad, 63% are against the initiative.

Only 54% of People’s Party supporters are in favour of the initiative. All other political parties and groups are against it. In all, 80% of those surveyed say that the concepts of physical integrity and freedom are already enshrined in the Swiss constitution.

Adapted from French by Simon Bradley/ts