Stocks Get AI Boost as Small Caps Keep Rallying: Markets Wrap

(Bloomberg) — Stocks rebounded as a blowout outlook from an artificial-intelligence bellwether revived hopes about the longevity of a key bull-market driver while signs of economic strength lifted small caps.

A gauge of chipmakers hit all-time highs as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Asia’s most valuable company, assuaged concerns about the sustainability of current data-center spending. Nvidia Corp. jumped over 2% and ASML Holding NV notched a record. Small caps kept rising, with the Russell 2000 beating the S&P 500 for a 10th straight session — the longest streak since 1990.

“Technology stocks had looked vulnerable in recent weeks as investors rotated away from megacap names and into more cyclical areas of the market,” said Fawad Razaqzada Forex.com. “TSMC’s update, though, appears to have stabilized that ‘rotation’ rather than reversed it outright.”

That balance between tech optimism and broader participation should remain a defining feature in the weeks ahead, he noted.

A run of stronger-than-expected economic data has helped shape a growing sense that conditions are improving, with investors chasing riskier parts of the market that typically benefit in that scenario.

Bonds fell as data showed a resilient labor market, with jobless claims sliding to the lowest since November. New York state factory activity expanded, while a gauge of prices received dropped to an almost one-year low.

Several Federal Reserve officials speaking Thursday signaled a willingness to pause rate cuts at their upcoming policy meeting, citing a labor market that appears to be stabilizing and ongoing inflation pressures.

The S&P 500 rose 0.3%. A gauge of chipmakers jumped 1.8%. Also aiding sentiment was a US deal with Taiwan to cut tariffs and boost chip investment. The Russell 2000 added 0.9%. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is raising billions in a massive bond sale after reporting solid results. Morgan Stanley’s debt bankers boosted revenue 93% in the fourth quarter.

The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose four basis points to 4.17%. The dollar wavered. Oil sank as President Donald Trump signaled he may hold off on attacking Iran for now. Silver slid after a blistering rally and as the US refrained from imposing import tariffs on critical minerals.

“Tech in general, and AI in particular, remain the key to the equity market’s zeitgeist,” said Steve Sosnick at Interactive Brokers. “Good news from that sector keeps the stock market humming.”

TSMC is earmarking as much as $56 billion in capital spending for 2026, a stronger-than-anticipated projection. The company expects expenditures of $52 billion to $56 billion this year, up at least a quarter from 2025. It also foresees revenue growth of close to 30% in 2026, faster than the average analyst estimate.

“It might seem odd to reward a company simply because it’s spending more money than anticipated, but there are two major positive takeaways when a key semiconductor manufacturer makes an announcement of that sort,” noted Sosnick.

First, only a thriving company can afford to spend even more billions than it was already planning to, he said. Second, that money will be spent with key suppliers, boosting their prospects as well, Sosnick concluded.

Thursday’s action suggests a bit of “bargain hunting” – especially in the tech space after the TSMC news as well as the recent pullback, according to Kenny Polcari at SlateStone Wealth.

“If earnings continue to beat expectations and economic data remains supportive, the likely path remains advance, backfill, then advance again,” he noted.

This earnings season will give investors confidence in the durability of earnings growth, which is a key driver for market returns over the next 12 months,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.

“We maintain our S&P 500 year-end target at 7,700 and recommend under-allocated investors add exposure to our preferred areas,” she noted. The gauge is currently around 6,945.

While stocks are bouncing as the technology sector is getting a boost, there is growing evidence that not only are we seeing some “rotation” between different sectors in the marketplace, but we’re also seeing some of that rotation within the tech sector, according to Matt Maley at Miller Tabak.

“Investors seem to be a lot more confident that chip stocks can continue to grow their profits while they’re not so sure that the buyers of all of these chips — the hyperscalers — will see the same kind of profit growth,” Maley said.

As the hyperscalers keep buying chips, it obviously helps the profits of those companies, he noted. However, if the cost of buying those chips does not subside, the hyperscalers are going to have a tough time increasing their profits especially since the prices they are charging for the end products are not moving up.

“Overall, a broad-based bounce arguably should begin again in US equity indices, but gains likely could depend on the ‘Magnificent Seven’ showing a bit more stabilization after recent weakness,” said Mark Newton at Fundstrat Global Advisors.

The stock market’s primary uptrends remain intact, and breadth is improving; however, investors need to be tactical and selective with these rotations to generate “alpha,” said Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler.

In reverse leapfrog action, small caps have posted higher year-to-date returns than mid caps, which have outpaced large caps, noted Sam Stovall at CFRA. Valuations are contributing to the rotation. And 2026 quarterly estimates for these mid- and small-cap indices are expected to outpace comparative growth for the large-cap benchmark, he added.

“As a result, this projected acceleration in earnings-per-share growth rates should allow for continued relative price outperformances for these smaller asset classes, Stovall concluded.

‘Greater Scrutiny’

A strong macro environment in 2026, supported by easier monetary conditions and robust fiscal stimulus across major economies, is likely to favor cross-regional performance, according to Magdalena Ocampo at Principal Asset Management.

“AI, which has fueled US large-cap tech gains, faces greater scrutiny as investors shift focus from aggressive AI-related spending to profitability,” she said. “While US tech allocation remains important, it may be prudent for investors to diversify into regions offering direct or indirect AI exposure at more attractive valuations and benefiting from supportive policy tailwinds.”

Ocampo also notes that AI reinforces the importance of maintaining US exposure given its tech leadership. Still, concerns over aggressive AI-driven spending and high valuations heighten pressure for companies to deliver on earnings.

“Given US equity market concentration, investors should seek diversification,” she said.

Corporate Highlights:

OpenAI is looking to bolster its US hardware supply chain and find partners for a push into consumer devices, robotics and cloud data centers, part of a major product expansion planned for the coming years. Tight memory chip supplies will constrain the number of US export licenses for Nvidia Corp. to sell its H200 artificial intelligence processors to Chinese customers, according to the top Republican on the House China committee, citing terms of a Commerce Department rule issued this week. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. blew through expectations for equities-trading revenue, posting an all-time Wall Street record of $4.31 billion in the final three months of last year. Morgan Stanley’s debt bankers increased revenue 93% in the fourth quarter, by far the biggest jump on Wall Street and capping a record year for that business. BlackRock Inc. pulled in $342 billion of total client cash in the fourth quarter, pushing the firm to a record $14 trillion of assets as it integrates a string of recent acquisitions to become a force in private markets. BlackRock has raised $12.5 billion as part of a partnership with Microsoft Corp. to bankroll data centers and energy infrastructure, advancing its efforts to cash in on the artificial intelligence boom. Carlyle Group Inc.’s wealth business has nearly doubled since Harvey Schwartz became chief executive officer in 2023 and is on track to account for some 20% of the firm’s capital flows. A judge turned back Amazon.com Inc.’s initial challenge to Saks Global Enterprises’ foray into Chapter 11, by approving short-term financing for the bankruptcy. A judge refused to fast track Paramount Skydance Corp.’s lawsuit accusing directors of Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. of misleading investors about a more than $82.7 billion buyout bid from Netflix Inc. Paramount Skydance’s leadership has held talks in recent days with French President Emmanuel Macron amid a European charm offensive to garner support for its $108.4 billion hostile bid for Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. Netflix Inc. obtained global streaming rights to Sony Group Corp.’s films after they complete their run in theaters and pay-per-view, adding releases from one of Hollywood’s biggest studios. Boston Scientific Corp. agreed to buy medical device maker Penumbra Inc. in a deal valued at more than $14 billion to expand in the treatment of blood clots and stroke. Talen Energy Corp. agreed to buy three natural gas power plants from Energy Capital Partners for $3.5 billion as power producers race to snap up generators with the AI boom driving up electric demand. Coterra Energy Inc. is exploring a combination with Devon Energy Corp., according to people familiar with the matter, a potential tie-up between two shale explorers that would be among the biggest oil and gas deals in years. Verizon Communications Inc. said it would issue $20 credits to customers affected by a widespread service outage on Wednesday, which it attributed to a “software issue.” A US judge ruled Equinor ASA can resume building its multibillion-dollar wind project near New York, marking the second time this week a federal court has blocked the Trump administration from enforcing a halt on offshore developments. Mastercard Inc., Visa Inc. and UK fintech Revolut Ltd. lost a lawsuit with the UK regulator over its plans to usher in a cap on cross-border card fees. Spotify Technology SA is raising the price of its premium subscription service by 8% in an effort to achieve sustained profitability. Ashmore Group Plc’s first quarterly net inflows since 2021 signaled a potential reversal of fortune for the emerging-markets-focused asset manager that’s seen persistent client redemptions in recent years. UniCredit SpA said that recent media reports about its interest in potentially buying a stake in rival Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA were “unjustified.” Richemont’s customers splurged on its watches and Cartier jewelry over the holidays particularly in the US, even as wider concerns about the luxury market remain. What Bloomberg Strategists say…

“A look at valuations across a range of assets show that precious metals are overstretched, tech has surprisingly cheapened while small caps and global stocks-ex US have become pricier.”

—Tatiana Darie, Macro Strategist, Markets Live. For the full analysis, click here.

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

The S&P 500 rose 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.3% The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6% The MSCI World Index rose 0.2% Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index rose 1.8% Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.2% The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.9% KBW Bank Index rose 1.7% Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed The euro fell 0.3% to $1.1604 The British pound fell 0.5% to $1.3376 The Japanese yen fell 0.1% to 158.64 per dollar Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin fell 2.2% to $95,388.14 Ether fell 2.4% to $3,291.58 Bonds

The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.17% Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.82% Britain’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 4.39% The yield on 2-year Treasuries advanced five basis points to 3.56% The yield on 30-year Treasuries advanced one basis point to 4.79% Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude fell 4.9% to $58.97 a barrel Spot gold fell 0.4% to $4,609.07 an ounce –With assistance from Lu Wang.

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