Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.8% on an adjusted basis in the period from January to March 2025 compared to the previous quarter, as announced by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (Seco) on Monday.
A fortnight ago, Seco had measured 0.7% in an initial flash estimate. At that time, the figure was said to be above average.
However, the extent to which this boom was driven by anticipatory export effects remains an open question. According to economists, there may have been such effects due to US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats. Companies may therefore have taken advantage of the even lower customs environment in the starting quarter. The “Liberation Day” then took place at the start of the second quarter.
According to Seco, the chemical and pharmaceutical industry expanded at an above-average rate in the first quarter. However, the services sector also saw broad-based growth. Domestic demand also developed positively, according to the communiqué.
Stronger growth in 2024
The figure is adjusted for sporting events. As is well known, the Olympic Games and major football events distort Swiss GDP due to the licence income that flows to sports associations based in Switzerland. Without adjustment, GDP growth was slightly weaker at 0.5%.
The growth figures for the fourth quarter of 2024 and subsequently for 2024 as a whole have now also been adjusted slightly, with adjusted growth coming in at 1% after 0.9%. However, this is still less than the 1.2% reported for 2023. On an unadjusted basis, growth was 1.4% after 0.7% in the previous year.
Adapted from German by DeepL/ac
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