Swiss population cap would be costly, says migration office

The SVP's initiative would be very costly, according to an SEM study Keystone-SDA

The costs to the nation of the Swiss "No to ten million" initiative would outweigh potential housing market relief and other benefits, according to a study from the migration office.

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The government published the results of the study a month before the federal referendum.

Limiting immigration would undoubtedly lead to some easing of crowding, particularly in the housing market. But these would be far less significant than the economic costs involved, the study states.

+ Is Swiss population cap an unprecedented idea?

The state pension pot would deteriorate by several billion francs a year over several decades. Tax revenues would fall by more than expenditure, and the share of healthcare costs in national income would increase more than in a scenario without such a limitation.

The savings made in supplementary benefits and social assistance with the adoption of the initiative would not be enough to offset this tax burden. As a result, tax increases are to be feared. This is just one of a number of measures that would fall “mainly on the current generation of working people”, states the report.

130,000 fewer pupils

The impact on the workforce, which is already limited due to the ageing of the population, is also mentioned in the study. The number of school-age children would also fall. The study predicts a drop of 130,000 pupils by 2100 if immigration is restricted.

Like parliament, the Federal Council is opposed to the Swiss People’s Party initiative put to the vote on June 14.

The results of the the State Secretariat for Migration (SEM) study “may be useful in shaping opinion in the run-up to the vote”, explains the government in a press release.

The figures presented in the study should be treated with a degree of caution, as the actual repercussions of a population limit depend largely on how it is implemented, it adds.

Adapted from French by AI/mga

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