Dollar Gains Ahead of Warsh Speech, Gold Declines: Markets Wrap

(Bloomberg) — The dollar strengthened against all its Group-of-10 peers as traders awaited key speeches from a swath of central bankers, including Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh, just as bets increased for an interest-rate hike.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed 0.2%, after rising 0.6% last quarter. The yen weakened 0.1% to 162.77 per dollar after falling to a 40-year low this week. South Korea’s won slid toward its weakest level since the global financial crisis, hurt by factors including overseas investors selling local stocks.

Gold dropped 0.8% to around $3,975 an ounce on speculation the Fed may raise rates, reducing the appeal of the non-interest bearing metal. Silver and platinum also retreated. Stocks wavered, while Treasuries were little changed in Asia after 10-year yields jumped nine basis points on Tuesday.

“The move higher in Treasury yields is giving the dollar some broad support ahead of Warsh’s speech later today and US non-farm payrolls data tomorrow,” said David Forrester, a senior strategist at Credit Agricole CIB in Singapore.

Global investors face key tests this week, with Warsh and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde set to speak in Europe before attention turns to the US June payrolls report on Thursday for clues about the path of rates. The speeches come after global stocks surged last quarter as investors looked past geopolitical tensions and piled into the AI trade.

Meanwhile, traders in the fed funds market are ramping up bets that the Fed may start raising rates as soon as July, a previously unthinkable move that risks being derailed by a series of economic data.

Tuesday’s economic reports showed US job openings were little changed in May, signaling labor demand remained steady, while consumer confidence edged higher in June as lower gasoline prices helped offset concerns about the job market.

Chances of a rate hike at next month’s policy meeting are still low, with interest rate swaps pricing in about nine basis points of a quarter point hike, or roughly a 36% probability. Still, that’s up from nearly zero before new chairman Warsh put the focus on price stability.

Officials will hold their next policy meeting at the end of July after voting unanimously to leave rates unchanged last month.

Meantime, the dollar’s appreciation is hurting Asian currencies.

“The dollar’s strength is such that a fresh low for the won would not be surprising,” said Moon Dawoon, an economist at Korea Investment & Securities Co. in Seoul.

The won declined as much as 0.6% to 1,559.10 per dollar after depreciating to 1,562.20 last month, a level last seen in March 2009.

In Japan, after the yen weakened past 162 per dollar on Tuesday, strategists increasingly pointed to 163 and beyond as the next levels to watch, arguing the finance ministry may tolerate a weaker currency than during its intervention campaign in 2024.

Japan’s top currency official Atsushi Mimura refrained from spelling out some of the Finance Ministry’s standard currency policies, including a readiness to take bold forex action — meaning intervention — at any time. Foreign exchange intervention by Japan to support the yen two months ago was successful, and some US authorities voiced support, he said in an interview.

A two-day rally in stocks lost momentum in Asia as investors turned cautious after a rally in chipmakers and other tech stocks helped propel them to their best quarter in 17 years. Equity-index futures indicated Asian losses will spread to Europe and the US.

“Being selective this quarter is going to be quite important,” Eastspring Investments portfolio manager Christina Woon said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “My concern is the elevated levels and the volatility we’ve seen in the market. You have to be selective to make sure you are picking stocks that have not overshot on fundamentals.”

Corporate Highlights:

Nike Inc. shares fell about 1.5% in extended trading after executives on Tuesday gave a cautious outlook and warned about elevated consumer anxiety, adding to investor concerns about the sportswear company’s painfully slow turnaround. Coles Group Ltd. said it’s in talks to buy pet store and veterinary business Greencross Pet Wellness Co., a deal that reportedly could be valued at as much as A$4 billion ($2.8 billion). The US government removed foreign access restrictions on Anthropic PBC’s Fable 5 artificial intelligence model, clearing it for wider distribution after the startup resolved the Trump administration’s safety controls. Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

S&P 500 futures fell 0.2% as of 1:58 p.m. Tokyo time Japan’s Topix rose 0.4% Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.6% The Shanghai Composite rose 1.1% Euro Stoxx 50 futures were little changed Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1% The euro fell 0.1% to $1.1409 The Japanese yen was little changed at 162.71 per dollar The offshore yuan fell 0.1% to 6.7988 per dollar Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin rose 1% to $59,245.51 Ether rose 1.5% to $1,597.7 Bonds

The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.46% Japan’s 10-year yield advanced 3.5 basis points to 2.705% Australia’s 10-year yield advanced seven basis points to 4.79% Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.3% to $69.73 a barrel Spot gold fell 0.8% to $3,977.81 an ounce This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

–With assistance from Matthew Burgess, Hooyeon Kim and Bing Hong Lok.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.