Gold-Like Swiss Franc May Surge 17%, Morgan Stanley’s Adams Says

(Bloomberg) — The Swiss franc could surge as much as 17% to the dollar amid growing confidence in the currency’s haven status in the face of US policy uncertainty, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.

Switzerland’s low inflation, fiscal soundness, and safety of assets, make the franc “arguably the most ‘gold-like’ safe haven currency,” strategists led by David Adams wrote in a note.

This could boost the franc to a lifetime high of 0.64 against the dollar in a “bear case” scenario, they said. The currency traded around 0.776 on Monday.

“CHF is an overlooked, underappreciated safe haven asset that looks set to appreciate more substantially and speedily than investors think or markets price,” Adams said. The currency is the “most proven” haven asset and has the best track record of outperforming during market shocks, he added.

The call comes as hedge funds are also betting on a stronger franc. Leveraged funds, which include the funds alongside other speculators, currently hold their biggest net-long position in the Swiss currency since June, according to the latest weekly CFTC data, having flipped from a net short a week earlier.

The franc last month surged to its strongest level against the euro and the dollar in more than a decade. Investors are lured by Switzerland’s modest debt, a stable economy and predictable policies as a counterpoint to confusion over policy making in the US, along with rising geopolitical risks.

While a stronger franc raises the risk that Switzerland’s central bank may step into the market to weaken the currency to curb deflationary pressures in the country, a growing number of economists acknowledge that the monetary authority appears less willing to counter its strength for now.

Morgan Stanley expects the franc to keep gaining against other currencies and is forecasting a 5% climb to 0.87 per euro from around 0.91 currently.

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