Roche Cuts Generic Impact Estimate, Pointing to More Growth

(Bloomberg) — Roche Holding AG pointed to future growth as it slashed the amount of sales it expects to lose to generic competition.

The Swiss drugmaker sees cheaper copycats removing about 600 million Swiss francs ($736 million) from revenue this year, it said Thursday, down from an earlier estimate of 1 billion francs.

The company reported better-than-expected earnings for the first half but left its guidance unchanged, with Chief Executive Officer Thomas Schinecker expression caution in a Bloomberg TV interview.

“We’re trending toward the high end of our guidance,” he said. “But let’s see how it continues” into the third quarter.

Roche is counting on new drugs and acquisitions to offset some 5.8 billion francs in revenue analysts expect will be lost to cheaper copycat medicines by 2029, with breast cancer and obesity among its biggest bets.

The shares rose as much as 3.2% in Zurich, reversing an earlier drop. They have gained about 4.6% this year, less than those of rival Novartis AG.

Revenue last quarter was in line with analysts’ estimates, although the blockbuster eye drug Vabysmo fell in the US, pointing to a slower-than-expected recovery.

Key to Roche’s competitiveness is giredestrant, an experimental breast-cancer pill. The US launch is planned for the end of the year, after regulators weigh in. The medicine could garner $14.5 billion in annual revenue at its peak, according to Citi analysts.

The submission to European Union regulators, who require different clinical data, should be ready in the next year, Schinecker said.

The different timelines and new pushback against high prices could make the drug a test of Europe’s willingness to pay for new treatments.

“Given the transformational nature of this medicine and the great data, I think giredestrant will be a good test to see how European governments and governments around the world value such great innovation,” he said.

–With assistance from Lisa Pham.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.