Stocks Rise as AI Trade Faces Nvidia Earnings Test: Markets Wrap
(Bloomberg) — Stocks rose as traders waited for Nvidia Corp.’s earnings to see whether the chipmaker can regain its place as the artificial-intelligence trade’s main driver.
S&P 500 futures climbed 0.2% after Tuesday’s rebound in beaten-down software firms. Treasuries fell as money markets trimmed bets on US interest-rate cuts. Tech-fueled gains pushed South Korea past France in stock-market value. Oil held near the highest since July as President Donald Trump added to speculation that he’s preparing for military action against Iran.
Nvidia is facing a high-stakes moment with its latest quarterly results due after the close. The AI bellwether has been underperforming semiconductor peers in recent months, a trend that has coincided with the Nasdaq 100 failing to hit new highs since the end of October and a rotation away from technology stocks.
To reinvigorate its stock performance, Nvidia will at least need to beat its prior outlook and set new targets above current Wall Street estimates. While the company has done this repeatedly, concerns have grown that the AI spending wave isn’t sustainable.
“Nvidia’s results are expected to be good given the massive capex announced by its clients, but it’s all about how the market will react,” said Arnaud Girod, head of cross-asset strategy at Kepler Cheuvreux. “The Nasdaq needs Nvidia if it is to limit its current underperformance.”
Bitcoin pared some of its early gains to trade around $65,500. The dollar slipped after President Donald Trump doubled down on his commitment to tariffs, before erasing the move. European stocks rose 0.5%, hitting a record on a rebound in banks and miners. Gold and silver climbed.
Another key earnings event on Wednesday is Salesforce Inc., the cloud-based customer-relationship firm whose stock has plunged 30% this year after getting caught up in the selloff of software companies on fears that AI could render their services obsolete.
Analysts, on average, project that the company will post its best quarterly revenue growth rate in three years. Still, highlighting the risks for software-as-a-service firms, Workday Inc. slid 10% in premarket trading after subscription sales fell short of estimates.
Swaps tied to Federal Reserve policy-meeting dates have reduced the chances of a quarter-point cut by June to 50%, the lowest so far this year. The possibility of a third reduction by year-end has almost vanished. The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose two basis points to 4.05%.
While Treasuries showcased their haven status during Monday’s tech selloff, longer-term pressures including uncertainty over inflation, tariffs and fiscal questions remain, according to Laura Cooper, head of macro credit at Nuveen.
“We are unlikely to see the resumption of rate cuts until we see greater signs of disinflationary pressures coming through, which to our mind is more of a second-half-of-2026 story,” Cooper told Bloomberg TV. “All of the factors suggest we are in a higher-for-longer yield backdrop.”
Rates on Japan’s longer-term bonds climbed further after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s government nominated two new Bank of Japan policy board members who are seen as dovish. The yen fell 0.5%, the worst performance among major currencies.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“Trump’s tariff agenda has been a headwind for the dollar during his second term and there was little indication he intended to soften his approach. He went on to predict that the US would take in so much revenue that it would ‘substantially replace the modern day system of income tax.’ The dollar will likely suffer it he does.”
— Conor Cooper, Macro Squawk. Click here to read the full analysis.
Corporate News:
Bank of Montreal topped estimates on stronger-than-expected performance both at its US operations as it pushes to improve results at the business and at its capital-markets unit, which benefited from strong trading. HSBC Holdings Plc reported better-than-estimated earnings for 2025 as Europe’s largest bank closed out a year in which its market value broke through £200 billion ($270 billion) for the first time in its history. Diageo Plc cut its guidance for the second time this fiscal year as the British distiller struggles to revive demand in the US and China, in an early challenge for new Chief Executive Officer Dave Lewis. Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings Plc will cut as much as a fifth of its roughly 3,000 workforce, as US President Donald Trump’s tariffs complicate a turnaround at the luxury-car maker. Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. said a new $31-a-share buyout offer from Paramount Skydance Corp. could lead to a better deal than its existing agreement with Netflix Inc. Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures rose 0.2% as of 6:43 a.m. New York time Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.3% Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2% The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.5% The MSCI World Index rose 0.1% Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed The euro was little changed at $1.1773 The British pound was little changed at $1.3496 The Japanese yen fell 0.6% to 156.79 per dollar Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 2.1% to $65,393.67 Ether rose 3.7% to $1,923.41 Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.05% Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.71% Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 4.32% Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.3% to $65.83 a barrel Spot gold rose 0.6% to $5,172.35 an ounce This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Neil Campling, James Hirai and Rose Henderson.
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