The three-child trap: where the Swiss family model hits a wall

In Switzerland, the total costs of raising a child come to well over CHF1 million ($1.22 million). Keystone / Gaetan Bally

Across the globe, rising childlessness is the main driver for plunging birth rates. Switzerland, however, tells a different story.

Many young South Koreans see themselves as part of the “N-po” generation. The “N” stands for an unspecified number, while “po” is the Korean word for “giving up”. It refers to a generation forced to give up everything that once seemed within reach: home ownership, building a career and having children. With just 0.7 children per women, South Korea has the lowest fertility rate in the world.

South Korea’s highly competitive environment is widely seen as the main reason for this trend. “Parents deem it irresponsible to have more than one child because putting even one through the education system already consumes enormous resources,” says Mikko Myrskylä, director at the Max-Planck-Institute for Demographic Research. At the same time, there are strong incentives not to have children at all. In South Korea, motherhood can severely undermine a woman’s career prospects.

In most European countries, the so-called motherhood penalty is far less pronounced. Yet, the main driver of dropping birth rates is the decline in first births.

Myrskylä believes that the drop in first births accounts for 70% to 90% of the overall decline in birth rates across much of Europe. “The first child is the bottleneck, and that is precisely what most political measures fail to address.”

A third child creates a new layer of constrains

What’s the situation in Switzerland? Outside the EU, the country with its high mountains, high wages and high costs often plays by different rules.

Last time we checked, Switzerland’s birth rate stood at 1.20 children per woman, clearly below the EU average of 1.34. According to Laura Bernardi, Professor of Demography and Sociology at Lausanne University, only half of the decline over the past five years can be attributed to falling first-birth rates in Switzerland. The other half is due to a shift towards smaller families. “In Switzerland, it is becoming increasingly rare for couples to have a second, and especially a third child.”

Over the same period, 8.5% fewer first children were born in Switzerland, while second births fell by 9.0% and third births by as much as 13.6%. “Many couples still become parents, but stop after the first child,” Bernardi concludes.

Even if they wanted another child, many Swiss couples reach a point where it would become almost impossible to manage, both financially and practically, says Bernardi. “The reason is that the cost structure for raising a child in Switzerland is highly non-linear.” A first child, she explains, requires major adjustments such as arranging childcare, reducing working hours and, in some cases, moving house. “But within a dual-income household, these changes are mostly still manageable.”

A second child increases costs further but, according to Bernardi, can still be accommodated within a similar arrangement. “Having a third child typically creates a whole new layer of constraints. It often requires more living space, higher childcare costs and a further reduction in working hours.”

The most expensive country in the world

The problem is exacerbated by Switzerland’s notoriously high cost of living. In the 2026 Cost of Living Index, Swiss cities take the top six places pushing New York City – the quintessential global city – to seventh place.

Already ten years ago, US media suggested that having three children in Manhattan was the ultimate status symbol. The same is now true in Switzerland, especially in larger cities.

Raising a child in Switzerland costs at least half a million Swiss francs. If lost income from working part-time is included, the price tag can easily double as the German-language newspaper BlickExternal link recently reported.

Although low-income families receive several benefits such as subsidies for healthcare costs, compared with the rest of Europe, Switzerland still has a “relatively ungenerous institutional framework for supporting parenthood” as Bernardi puts it. For example, there is no parental leave that can be shared flexibly, while childcare costs for middle-income families remain exorbitantly high.

Finland: falling birth rates despite gender equality

A contrasting trend can be seen in Scandinavian countries where governments encourage both mothers and fathers to remain in the workforce by offering long and well-paid parental leave and widely available childcare. According to Bernardi, policies that promote gender equality and shared parental responsibility make it easier to combine full-time work with raising children.

And yet, family-friendly policies alone do not necessarily lead to higher birth rates as a comparison within Scandinavia illustrates. Denmark continues to perform comparatively well with a fertility rate of 1.50, and women in Norway and Sweden also have more children than their Swiss counterparts. Finland, by contrast, trails just ahead of Switzerland with a fertility rate of 1.30 children per woman despite its generous family and gender equality policies.

The reason for this is that Finland sees even fewer first births than other European countries. “We actually have many families with three or four children. The real challenge today is getting couples to have children in the first place,” says Anna Rothkirch, a demographer from Finland.

She believes that childlessness is driven by growing individualism, substance abuse, higher divorce rates and the lack of suitable partners. Smartphones and social media also play a significant role. “We are experiencing a dating crisis, a mental health crisis and a 50% drop in the marriage rate. Nothing fundamental has changed over that period apart from digitalisation.” These are global trends affecting countries around the world.

Politicians talk but don’t act

Rothkirch also believes that childcare is the one measure that clearly correlates with higher birth rates. “That’s the base. But most [policymakers] expect children to ‘simply happen’.” She sees a gap in family policy. “Supporting young adults in forming partnerships would be important.” Rothkirch calls for incentives to encourage more couples to start families earlier in life. “Those who start too late often end up with no children at all.”

Myrskylä of the Max-Planck-Institute draws a similar conclusion. “I don’t think family policymakers have this problem on their radar. It seems they always assume a couple is already together and, for some reason, hesitant to have children.” Whether that couple stays together, and how stable partnerships are formed in the first place, is not addressed.

There is no unified European family policy that could reverse falling birth rates. Countries approach this issue very differently. Yet, Myrskylä sees a common denominator between rhetoric and action. “European countries experiencing an unprecedented drop in birth rates tend to produce reports that bring together the best experts on fertility dynamics,” he says. These reports often contain bold proposals, but little is ever implemented. “Politics struggles to respond to dropping birth rates. It seems as if we are entering an era in which ultra-low birth rates are becoming the new normal.”

In Switzerland, children are a private matter

Unlike in much of Europe, Switzerland’s declining birth rate has so far received little attention from politicians. Recent debates have instead been dominated by immigration and the strains of economic growth. However, there is considerable untapped potential, especially in childcare and broader work-family reconciliation policies.

Family policy has a difficult standing in Switzerland’s federal and liberal political system where having children is widely considered a private matter.

If Switzerland wants to raise its birth rate, it will need to shift its mindset, says Bernardi. “Children should be seen as a public good, since prosperity and economic growth depend on an adequate level of generational renewal.”

Bernardi believes the greatest risk to Switzerland’s birth rate lies in a convergence of trends such as economic uncertainty, opportunity costs that discourage parents from expanding their families, structural barriers in housing and childcare and the resulting postponement of starting a family. “If this continues, one-child or childless families will become the norm,” says Bernardi.

If that happens, Switzerland will be in the same position as South Korea.

Edited by Balz Rigendinger. Adapted from German by Billi Bierling /ds