The West needs a ‘plan B’ to end Ukraine war, says Swiss security expert

Thomas Greminger, who heads the Geneva Center for Security Policy, says the West needs to consider a plan B with Russia to ensure the long-term stability of Europe. This includes dialogue with Russia.

“Stability in Europe can only exist with, not against, Russia,” said Greminger in an interview in the NZZ am SonntagExternal link. “The condition, of course, is that Moscow is ready to play by the rules again.”

Before leading the Geneva Centre for Security Policy, Greminger was the Swiss ambassador to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) from 2010 to 2017. He then became the organisation’s secretary general. During that time, he was involved in trying to de-escalate tensions after the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014.

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In the NZZ interview, he called for the West to start thinking about options beyond the current plan of indefinite military support to Ukraine. “You need a plan B,” he said. “At some point it will boil down to the question: do you want a very long, very expensive war – or an end to the conflict, even if that is unsatisfactory?”

A plan B would include, in his view, negotiations on a ceasefire, which would then lead to discussions about territorial claims. While this will have a political price for Ukraine, he believes that a temporary solution could be found and renegotiated when a new government is in power in Russia. He said that the Geneva Centre for Security Policy has been working on security guarantees that Ukraine should have in the future.

“I am convinced that one day we will have to talk to the Russians again and try to come back to certain cooperative elements in European security,” said Greminger. “Pure confrontational politics is too expensive and too risky in the long run.”

Switzerland’s role

Switzerland can play an important role in the humanitarian field and in reconstruction, said Greminger, but it should do more than that. It can also be generous in taking in refugees. It can also “discreetly encourage dialogue”. This wouldn’t be as an official mediator but that “doesn’t mean that you can’t do a lot behind the scenes”.

He believes that Geneva could play a role, as it has in the past, as a location for talks even through informal channels. The Russians “value the good infrastructure and expertise in Geneva. They are much more pragmatic than the official position suggests,” said Greminger.