Study on US policies warns of billions in losses for Swiss pharma industry
US pharmaceutical policy could prove costly for Switzerland. An industry-backed study estimates that potential losses could reach almost CHF95 billion ($117 billion) by 2040 and warns of consequences for patients.
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Study on US policies warns of billions in losses for Swiss pharma industry
An analysisExternal link commissioned by the pharmaceutical industry association Interpharma has examined the potential impact of US pharmaceutical policy on Switzerland. The study by the research institute BAK Economics highlights various possible scenarios, Interpharma announced on Thursday.
The analysis focuses on the relocation of production capacity to the US and a new drug pricing approach by the US government.
The study compares a reference scenario with three alternative scenarios, each with increasingly negative implications. In the baseline scenario, growth in the Swiss pharmaceutical industry slows significantly. While it averaged 12.8% per year between 2015 and 2025, it falls to 6.9% in the period from 2025 to 2040.
In the scenario of a structural break, the cumulative loss in gross value added by 2040 amounts to CHF194.5 billion compared with the baseline path. This corresponds to more than a fifth (22.4%) of Switzerland’s current economic output. The authors emphasise that this is not a worst-case scenario. In the two milder scenarios, the losses amount to CHF27 billion and CHF77.7 billion respectively.
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Indirect consequences are crucial
A key factor is the so-called Most-Favoured-Nation (MFN) drug pricing approach, whereby the US intends to link its medicine prices to those of other industrialised countries. The greatest losses would not arise directly from lower prices in the US.
To offset lower prices in the US, pharmaceutical companies might delay the launch of new medicines in other markets, or even cease launching them altogether to avoid reference prices. Around two-thirds of the losses in the “structural break” scenario are attributable to this indirect effect.
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According to the press release, this mechanism is already having tangible consequences for Switzerland today. A survey of Interpharma members revealed that, between January 2025 and June 2026, seven out of 22 new innovative medicines had not been submitted for inclusion on the Specialities List, which includes all drugs reimbursed by basic insurance. The reason for this is the developments surrounding the MFN approach. This corresponds to around one third of the new medicines during this period.
The US is the most important market for the Swiss pharmaceutical industry. In 2025, 29.3% of Swiss pharmaceutical exports were to the US.
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Translated from German, reviewed by an English Department journalist.
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