Switzerland braces for winter as gas risks mount

View of Bern rooftops, January 2026. After record summer heat in Europe, attention is turning to winter. There are concerns about higher energy prices and the impact of the ongoing US-Iran war. Keystone / Christian Beutler

Six months into the US-Iran war, Switzerland has avoided fuel shortages but faces sharply higher energy prices and growing concerns over winter gas supplies amid low EU storage levels.

While the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt global energy markets, Swiss fuel imports remain secure. Attention is now shifting from supply availability to rising prices and the risk of a tighter European gas market this winter.

Swiss fuel supplies remain secure

Avenergy, the Swiss fuel importers’ association, says the war has not disrupted Swiss fuel supplies.

“There has not been any kind of scarcity in the past six months due to the Iran war. Supply has always been and continues to be guaranteed,” Avenergy spokesperson Ueli Bamert told Swissinfo.

Before the war, the Strait of Hormuz carried roughly a fifth of global oil and LNG (liquefied natural gas) trade. Switzerland imports about 30% of its oil in crude form, mainly from the United States, Nigeria and North Africa, while most refined products, including petrol and diesel, come from EU countries.

Bamert said Switzerland’s limited reliance on Gulf crude had helped insulate supplies from the conflict.

As a safeguard against shortages, the Swiss government can also draw on mandatory stockpilesExternal link managed by the private sector under federal supervision. Strategic reserves can cover around four-and-a-half months of petrol, diesel and heating oil demand, and three months of kerosene consumption. These reserves were not released over the past six months, said Bamert.

Consumers face higher oil and fuel prices

Although oil markets have adjusted to the loss of Middle Eastern supplies, consumers are still paying more. Brent crude remains about 25% above its pre-war level at around $90 (CHF72) a barrel, while European diesel prices have surged by more than 70% since the conflict began.

In Switzerland, dieselExternal link averaged CHF2.27 ($2.82) per litre in late August, up 21% since late February, while unleaded petrol rose 17% to CHF2.02.

Road freight costs are already 15% higher than a year ago and are expected to remain elevated until the end of the year, according to the Geneva-based International Road Transport Union (IRU).

Heating oilExternal link, used in about 35% of Swiss buildingsExternal link, has also become more expensive. Prices rose from around CHF92 to CHF156 per 100 litres in April before easing and then climbing again to about CHF140 in late August.

Summer drought has added to the pressure. Low water levels on the River Rhine have disrupted deliveries of petroleum products from North Sea ports to Basel in northern Switzerland, pushing up transport costs and, in turn, fuel and heating oil prices.

Swiss residents earn high incomes by European standards but spend comparatively little of their income on utilities.

For Alexander Rathke, head of economic forecasts at the KOF Swiss Economic Institute, the impact of the US-Iran war on Swiss consumers has been “visible but limited”.

“Overall, Swiss households have weathered the US-Iran war relatively well so far. Inflation has remained low, allowing for an increase in real wages this year. Consumer sentiment remains cautious but has recovered significantly since the start of the war,” he told Swissinfo.

Europe’s gas market under pressure

Gas accounts for around 12% of Switzerland’s energy consumption and heats one in six homesExternal link. Prices have risen sharply since the outbreak of hostilities.

Dutch TTF futures, the benchmark for European and Swiss gas prices, stood at €64 (CHF60) per megawatt-hour on August 26, up more than 130% since the start of the year.

Although gas prices remain far below the record levels seen during the 2022 energy crisis, Europe enters winter with unusually low storage inventories. Strong summer electricity demand, drought-related disruptions to hydropower and nuclear facilities, and supply outages have tightened the market. The average EU gas storage level stood at 62% in late August, well below typical seasonal levels.

A cold winter could trigger further price rises and push up household energy bills.

Ben McWilliams, an energy analyst from the thinktank Bruegel, sees no reason for “excessive panic”.

He told Euractiv that shortages would require a “worst-case winter with prolonged cold temperatures, further unplanned global LNG market outages, and weak electricity supply” from renewable and nuclear sources.

Still, Switzerland’s dependence on European gas markets leaves it vulnerable if conditions deteriorate, and especially if there is a colder-than-normal winter.

Swiss authorities prepare for possible gas shortage

The Alpine nation relies on gas imports via neighbouring countries and on storage capacity booked abroad. Most of Europe’s pipeline gas imports now come from Norway and Algeria, while LNG is sourced largely from the United States.

In its latest assessmentExternal link of energy security on August 19, the government warned that securing supplies for the coming winter was “proving challenging”. Together with the gas industry, it has established a taskforce to monitor the situation.

Since 2022, Swiss gas suppliers have been legally required to secure storage capacity in European facilities equivalent to 15% of the country’s annual demand.

Janos Kick, a spokesperson for the Association of the Swiss Gas Industry, said the supply situation is stable but that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has increased uncertainty in global energy markets.

“Gas consumption in winter typically exceeds the amount available in the short term. This is why gas storage facilities are so important, alongside gas imports. The colder the winter, the more important they become,” he told Swissinfo.

“Switzerland remains dependent on gas imports and must therefore be prepared for disruptions in Europe.”

On August 20, Bern announcedExternal link a contingency mechanism known as ITA.SWAPtion.26, which would allow Switzerland to redirect gas flowing through the transit pipeline from France to Italy if imports via Germany were disrupted. Available from October 2026 to March 2027, the measure could cover around 10% of Swiss winter demand and is intended primarily to protect industrial and commercial consumers.

Gilles Verdan, general manager of Gaznat, told Swiss public radio RTS that the arrangement was a “sensible extra safeguard” that should help reduce the risk of a gas shortage in Switzerland.

But in the long term Verdan said domestic gas storage would improve Switzerland’s energy security, highlighting a planned project in Upper Valais as a means of reducing one of the country’s key vulnerabilities.

Edited by Marc Philipp Leutennegger/ts