Stocks Climb, Oil Falls on Hopes War Is Near End: Markets Wrap
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street staged a dramatic comeback at the end of March, with stocks climbing as oil fell on hopes that the war that has jolted global markets and disrupted energy supplies may be nearing a conclusion.
Equities saw their biggest rally since May on speculation that both the US and Iran might be looking for a way out of the conflict. The S&P 500 gained 2.9% and the Nasdaq Composite added 3.8%. Airlines jumped while energy producers slipped. US crude closed near $101. Its retreat from multiyear highs extended an advance in Treasuries. The dollar dropped and gold rose.
Those moves came after Iran’s state news agency reported a phone call between European Union Council President Antonio Costa and President Masoud Pezeskhian, who said the Islamic Republic has “the necessary will to end this war,” but only with guarantees “to prevent the recurrence of aggression.”
The Wall Street Journal reported President Donald Trump and his aides assessed that a mission to reopen the Strait of Hormuz would push the war beyond his timeline of four to six weeks. He later told the New York Post the US is “not going to be there too much longer,” adding that the waterway would open “automatically” after the US leaves.
“Markets have taken it on the chin for over a month and expectations may have hit a low enough point that any glimmer of hope is now much more valuable,” said Michael Bailey at FBB Capital Partners.
The Tick Index, which measures the amount of equities on the New York Stock Exchange moving higher versus lower on a second-by-second basis, spiked to the highest on record at one point Tuesday.
“While Trump may be considering an end to hostilities, the key issue — the status of the Strait — remaining unresolved will be what’s more important from the market’s point of view,” said Fawad Razaqzada at Forex.com. “It’s difficult to see Iran stepping back without extracting concessions.”
The war, now in its fifth week, has caused extensive infrastructure damage and effectively closed the strait. That has choked off energy supplies, spurring a surge in oil prices while triggering concern about a simultaneous jump in inflation and slowdown in growth.
On the economic front, data showed consumer confidence unexpectedly rose in March on slightly more upbeat views of business and labor-market conditions. Job openings fell and hiring slowed in February, pointing to cooler labor demand before the war.
“There do appear to be some early signs of stabilization in both consumer confidence and job openings after a clear fourth-quarter downtrend,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro. “While that doesn’t yet signal a meaningful rebound, it may suggest the consumer and labor backdrop are no longer deteriorating at the same pace.”
Ultimately, both investors and consumers need to see notable de-escalation in the Middle East and some relief at the gas pump before confidence can rebound significantly, he added.
Corporate Highlights:
Nvidia Corp. is taking a $2 billion stake in Marvell Technology Inc. and is opening up its system to allow Marvell to integrate custom AI chips and networking equipment on the platform. CoreWeave Inc. has raised $8.5 billion from a group of banks and investors to help finance an expansion of its cloud computing capacity. Eli Lilly & Co. agreed to buy sleep drugmaker Centessa Pharmaceuticals Plc in a deal worth up to $7.8 billion, a sign the weight-loss medication giant is looking to bulk up its treatment pipeline for other conditions. Biogen Inc. has agreed to acquire Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc. for $5.6 billion, expanding its treatments in immunology and rare diseases. Unilever Plc agreed to combine its food business with spice maker McCormick & Co. in a $44.8 billion deal that will create a global seasonings, sauces and condiments company. What Bloomberg strategists say…
“The euphoria on Tuesday around Iran signaling a willingness to end hostilities looks a touch premature. Much hinges on what Tehran defines as ‘essential guarantees’ — particularly if they mirror the conditions outlined in its response to the US ceasefire proposal, which could prove a high bar for Washington to meet.”
— Brendan Fagan, Macro Strategist, Markets Live. For the full analysis, click here.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
The S&P 500 rose 2.9% as of 4 p.m. New York time The Nasdaq 100 rose 3.4% The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.5% Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.6% The euro rose 0.8% to $1.1559 The British pound rose 0.4% to $1.3235 The Japanese yen rose 0.6% to 158.72 per dollar Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 1.8% to $67,791.18 Ether rose 3.7% to $2,096.04 Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.32% Germany’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 3.00% Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 4.92% Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.7% to $102.13 a barrel Spot gold rose 3.8% to $4,684.45 an ounce ©2026 Bloomberg L.P.
