Stocks Rise, Oil Falls on Trump’s Iran War Remarks: Markets Wrap
(Bloomberg) — Stocks rose and crude oil fell as President Donald Trump signaled the Iran war may be nearing an end, helping boost sentiment after Monday’s selloff in risk assets.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 3.1%, with technology shares leading gains. European stocks were also set to advance with contracts indicating a 1.4% jump at the open. However, equity-index futures for the S&P 500 Index slipped 0.2%, indicating the recovery that started on Wall Street on Monday may be running out of steam.
The rebound in sentiment for markets came as Trump said the war with Iran would be resolved “very soon.” Even so, from the UAE to Bahrain to Kuwait, several Middle Eastern countries announced missile threats, sounded sirens or intercepted drones on Tuesday. Trump said he didn’t believe the conflict would be over this week.
Brent crude fell 5.2% to $93.79 a barrel after earlier sliding as much as 11%. Even after Tuesday’s decline, the price has surged more than 50% this year.
The sharp reversals indicate just how sensitive markets have become to headlines from the Middle East conflict. Cross-asset volatility showed little sign of easing — with a market risk indicator hovering near levels seen when Trump unveiled global tariffs last year — as investors grappled with a fast-moving geopolitical conflict that offered no clear trading playbook.
“Trump saying the war is close to complete is being interpreted by many market participants as a sign the US is looking for some sort of off ramp,” said Graeme Miller, chief investment officer at Melbourne-based Mercer Super, which oversees about A$85 billion ($60 billion). “Some of the more extreme negative tail scenarios are now less likely.”
Trump said he would waive oil-related sanctions and have the US Navy escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. He vowed bombing “at a much, much harder level” if Iran disrupted oil supplies.
Trump’s comments at press conferences “haven’t been the most informative signal,” so investors would do well to remain skeptical, Eric Van Nostrand, a chief investment officer at Lazard Asset Management, said in a Bloomberg TV interview.
“There’s a lot of misplaced confidence in markets right now that things will ease quickly as they have in previous episodes of elevated Middle Eastern tensions,” he said. “But I do think what we are seeing today, given the likely duration of closure of the Strait of Hormuz, is something quite different. It is going to affect the global economy really in a very meaningful and global way.”
In other corners of the market, the dollar weakened 0.2%, a third day of decline. Treasury 10-year yields climbed one basis point to 4.11% after halting a five-day increase on Monday. Gold and silver advanced.
What Bloomberg strategists say…
“The damage to economies goes well beyond the direct fallout from crude prices. Inflation shocks are coming, delivering stagflationary impulses as they weaken demand and push central banks toward more hawkish stances. The outlook for equities is much gloomier now than it was a month ago.”
— Garfield Reynolds, MLIV Asia Team Leader. Click here for the full analysis.
Crude had a volatile session on Monday that saw the commodity swing in the widest range since prices briefly turned negative during the depths of the pandemic. Oil surged toward $120 a barrel early Monday before pulling back as the world’s largest economies considered an effort to release emergency reserves.
Still, the vital Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, which has led to major producers in the Persian Gulf, including Saudi Arabia, curtailing output. The waterway is crucial for the global movement of crude.
Group-of-Seven finance ministers said they were ready to take any steps needed to support energy supply, including releasing strategic oil reserves — although the group isn’t at the point of doing so yet. Meantime, Trump is expected to review a set of options to tame oil prices, including restricting US exports and waiving some federal taxes, Reuters reported.
“It’s likely a relief rally rather than anything longer term until we see some evidence of the conflict ending,” said Nick Twidale, chief market analyst at AT Global Markets. “It’s still too much of a tough call to put growth sectors back in play until we see solid evidence of progress, but we may find some investors looking for value plays as they look for light at the end of the tunnel.”
Corporate Highlights:
Saudi Aramco approved a $3 billion share buyback program and raised its dividend payout, as investors remain focused on how the company weathers the impact of the ongoing war in the Middle East. Novo Nordisk A/S and Hims & Hers Health Inc. will work together to sell obesity drugs, a sudden reversal after more than eight months of acrimony that culminated in a legal battle. Volkswagen AG expects returns to remain under pressure this year as higher raw material costs, intense competition and geopolitical tensions combine for a challenging outlook. Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. gave an outlook for revenue in the current quarter that exceeded analysts’ estimates, a sign the company is benefiting from solid demand for hardware that helps customers run AI workloads. Apple Inc. increased iPhone production in India by about 53% last year and now makes a quarter of its marquee devices there. Anthropic PBC sued the Defense Department for declaring the AI giant posed a risk to the US supply chain, further ramping up a high-stakes dispute with the Pentagon over safeguards on the company’s technology. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.’s sales rose 30% in the first two months of the year, buoyed by the robust pace of AI infrastructure construction. Airlines in Asia are raising ticket prices and mapping out contingency plans that include grounding planes as the escalating Middle East conflict threatens to trigger the worst oil shock since the 1970s. Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures fell 0.2% as of 6:51 a.m. London time Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.1% The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 3.1% Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 2% The Shanghai Composite rose 0.6% Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 1.4% Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2% The euro was little changed at $1.1633 The Japanese yen was little changed at 157.57 per dollar The offshore yuan was little changed at 6.8828 per dollar The British pound rose 0.1% to $1.3451 Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 1.4% to $69,971.29 Ether rose 0.9% to $2,044.57 Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced one basis point to 4.11% Japan’s 10-year yield was unchanged at 2.180% Australia’s 10-year yield declined nine basis points to 4.85% Commodities
Spot gold rose 0.7% to $5,176.24 an ounce West Texas Intermediate crude fell 5.4% to $89.65 a barrel This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Richard Henderson, Winnie Hsu, Abhishek Vishnoi, Aya Wagatsuma and Sarah Chen.
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