Swiss Population Cap Study Shows 12% GDP Hit by End of Century

(Bloomberg) — A Swiss population cap of 10 million risks curbing economic output by as much as 12% through the end of the century, according to a government-commissioned study.

The report by Switzerland’s Demografik think tank showed that in a scenario without such a limit, envisaging natural demographic expansion to a total of more than 11 million on that timeline, gross domestic product would be noticeably higher.

“A cap would reduce the number of people in the workforce in the baseline scenario by about 11% by 2075 and significantly exacerbate the existing shortage of skilled workers, particularly in the healthcare, hospitality, IT and construction sectors,” the authors wrote in the study published on Wednesday.

The report showed that by mid-century, single-digit percentage differences are expected between the baseline scenario and two alternative scenarios that incorporate different forms of a population limit.

“The differences between the two implementation scenarios converge over the longer term,” the authors said, adding that “by the end of the century, regardless of the chosen implementation scenario, GDP will be approximately 12% lower than in the scenario without immigration restrictions.”

The study will feed into a feverish national debate proceeding one of the most polarizing proposals put to the Swiss electorate in years. Polls show an even split among voters, with supporters linking crowded trains and high rents to immigration. About 9.1 million people live in Switzerland, according to figures from the end of 2025.

Business leader and the government have spoken out strongly against the proposal, which will be put to the ballot box on June 14.

The authors did note that the plan would ease some pressure on housing, infrastructure and welfare. Still the analysis found that its fiscal and demographic expenses, especially in terms of skilled labor shortages and healthcare costs, would outweigh those advantages.

“Many of the identified challenges (an aging population, a shortage of skilled workers, rising healthcare costs) exist regardless of whether population growth is limited,” they said. “But such a limit would increase the pressure to act and restrict the available policy options.”

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