Switzerland Is Asking Itself: Is 10 Million People Too Many?

(Bloomberg) — When the population in Davos surges next week during the World Economic Forum’s annual gathering, residents of the Swiss town will grit their teeth and suffer through the overcrowding, traffic chaos and disruption. After all, local stores, offices and even churches earn big sums renting out space to the elite crowd.

The headache lasts just a week, but the feelings in the mountain town are symbolic of tensions playing out all year round across Switzerland. And unlike in Davos, the Swiss increasingly feel that globalization has become a Faustian pact they’re no longer happy with.

Similar to countries from the US to France and the UK, worries about immigration and sovereignty are top of people’s minds. The population has grown about five times faster than the neighboring European Union over the past decade as foreign workers were drawn in by high wages and quality of life. About 27% of the people living there aren’t Swiss citizens.

But in Switzerland, the debate doesn’t only focus on refugees or low-skilled workers. Instead, there’s a proposal to cap the overall population at 10 million, and the public will likely vote on it this year.

The idea has come under fire from executives and bankers, and opponents say it would threaten crucial agreements with the European Union — the country’s biggest export market — and cripple the economy.

Listen to Hugo Miller discuss the debate on the Bloomberg Daybreak Europe podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere you listen.

Despite that, a December poll has revealed widespread support from almost half the electorate, across all age groups. Behind that are fears that Swiss culture will be eroded, but also that all foreigners, regardless of their contribution to the economy, put strains on things like housing and healthcare.

“Our public transport and highways are at their capacity limits, the emergency rooms are overcrowded,” said 22-year-old Angel Okaside from Thun, a postcard-perfect lakeside town built around a 12th-century castle. “You notice it in every area of life.”

The qualified nurse has been active in politics since his teens. He feels so strongly, he entered local politics with the right-wing Swiss People’s Party (SVP), the group pushing the “No 10 Million Switzerland” initiative.

The cap targets immigration, not birth rates, with restrictions kicking in at certain population levels.

Minaret Ban

The SVP has long run on an anti-immigration platform, which has helped it become the country’s largest party.

In 2007, it ran a much-criticized poster in which white sheep kicked a black sheep from a field covered in the Swiss flag, and it backed a ban on minarets that passed in a national vote in 2009.

Such a model is paying election dividends elsewhere too. In neighboring Germany and France, the Alternative for Germany and Marine Le Pen’s National Rally have both jumped in popularity by depicting a Europe threatened by unchecked immigration.

The issue goes deep in Switzerland, where there’s already a stringent treatment of foreigners. To obtain a passport, they must wait a decade, tick off a long list of requirements and could, mostly in smaller villages, still be denied by the voting town assembly.

There’s also pride in not taking sides in international affairs. Switzerland resisted joining the United Nations for decades, only becoming a member in 2002, and remains outside the EU, despite being surrounded by member states.

The immigration debate taps into concerns about national identity, much-cherished neutrality, and where the country stands in an era of unstable geopolitics and increased global tensions.

The big question is how open or closed the nation wants to be — or can afford to be — in such a world.

For centuries and through two World Wars, Switzerland literally used its mountains to ward off enemies or unwanted visitors. Until the late 19th century, it was a country of emigration, one with few natural resources. One of its biggest exports was mercenaries, and the striped, pantalooned Swiss Guards who protect the Vatican are a striking reminder of that era.

It was only really in the 20th century that Switzerland transformed from a relatively poor country into one of the world’s richest.

A postwar banking boom and the growth of multinationals made it wealthy, with a roster of blue-chip firms like UBS, Nestle, Swatch, Roche and Richemont. That meant increased labor demand, which a 1999 deal with the EU on the free movement of people helped to fill. Growth in wealth management and commodity trading also attracted a host of high-earners.

“Let’s not kid ourselves: immigration has been and is still the sine qua non of this kind of economic success,” said Stefan Legge, head of tax and trade policy at the University of St Gallen. “Switzerland’s watches, finance, pharma industries, Nestle: they all have an extraordinary share of foreigners in their staff and, quite often, as their founders.”

Shiny Facade

Visitors to Zurich’s Bahnhofstrasse, where a spotless tram shows up every 2-3 minutes, or Geneva’s meticulously-maintained Old Town, might struggle to understand what could possibly be wrong in Switzerland, where everything appears to run — appropriately — like clockwork.

Despite the country’s wealth, there’s resentment that not everyone is getting their fair share of the pie. And, with economic growth being driven by immigration, output per capita has slipped in recent years.

Behind the surface of luxury boutiques, pristine lakes and snow-capped mountains, that’s fueling a backlash against immigrants. And in a uniquely Swiss twist, it’s wealthy foreign workers who are being scapegoated as much as poorer newcomers.

Switzerland’s success in cultivating corporate giants is driving frustration among those not in high-paid jobs in finance, pharma and technology, and who lament the sky-high rents and increasing urbanization.

“They’re building even more and it keeps going up, then there will be even less forest,” said Roland Meyer, a bike shop owner in Zurich. “I just think we really need to put on the brakes before things get out of hand. And then we can see what we can do.”

Switzerland’s population is currently about 9.1 million. When 9.5 million is crossed, the initiative would deny entrance to newcomers like asylum seekers and families of foreign residents. At 10 million, further measures would be introduced, and if the numbers don’t decline, then Switzerland would quit the free-movement accord it has with the EU.

That would threaten the country’s access to the EU’s single market and make it harder for Swiss companies to recruit in the bloc.

Opponents says the measure would be economically damaging because it would ultimately force Swiss employers to invest elsewhere if they can’t get the talent they need locally.

Roche, which employs 15,000 people from 120 nationalities in Switzerland, is among those opposed to the initiative. It “jeopardizes the bilateral agreements with the EU and thus the prosperity of Switzerland,” said Annette Luther, head of external affairs at the drugmaker.

Economiesuisse, a business lobby, calls it the “chaos initiative.” UBS Chief Executive Officer Sergio Ermotti said the country has to be able to bring in labor.

“We must take the public’s concerns about the consequences of immigration seriously,” he said in an interview published Thursday in Tages-Anzeiger. “At the same time, we as a country must remain open to urgently needed skilled workers.”

Switzerland’s future prosperity is inextricably linked to the bloc that surrounds it. Aware of the EU’s importance, the Swiss government hammered out a new deal with it in 2024, which will require the country to stick to free movement. A national vote will also be needed on that agreement, and it will not be an easy sell to the public.

For Cédric Wermuth, co-president of the Social Democratic Party, aligning more tightly with Europe is the only choice. The EU buys about half of Swiss exports, and the trade, money and labor that its 450 million people have to offer is right on the country’s doorstep.

Meanwhile, relations with the US have been on a rollercoaster after it hit Switzerland with a whopping 39% tariff last summer. A better deal was announced in December, though the fine print is still being worked out.

“There is no alternative to close relations with Europe,” said Wermuth. “Beijing, Moscow, Washington are just not reliable partners. This initiative is not defending Switzerland as we know it, it’s putting it at risk.”

Direct Democracy

National votes on issues are a key feature of Switzerland’s brand of direct democracy, with multiple plebiscites every year on everything from taxation to fighter jets to how farmers should rear their cows.

They’ve become part of the Swiss political game, and even if initiatives fail, there’s a consolation prize in the public debate generated.

The SVP has used them to push back against a more globalized Switzerland. It also opposed a decision to abandon centuries of strict neutrality in 2022 and embrace EU sanctions on Russia after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

For Wermuth, ideas like the population cap are the wrong approach to frustrations about healthcare and housing. Rather than scapegoating certain people, he says there are domestic policy options that the government should be implementing.

But the proposal has tapped into many people’s anxiety.

“I notice how migration in our neighboring countries leads to much bigger problems than here in Switzerland,” said 19-year-old Leandro Aeschbacher, from Unterseen, near the tourist town of Interlaken. “Giving up a little bit of growth for a Switzerland that’s livable for its population is worth it.”

–With assistance from Fabienne Kinzelmann.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.