US Jobs Report Set to Reveal Solid Growth, Steady Unemployment Rate

(Bloomberg) — Jobs week is coming up in the US, with a whole slate of indicators on the state of the labor market culminating on Friday with the government’s official report on employment for the month of May.

The median estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists see the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3% while payrolls rise by 89,000, an increase that would bring the three-month average to the highest in more than a year and stir chatter about a more durable acceleration in hiring.

Forecasters predict ongoing strength in the healthcare sector as well as a pickup in cyclically sensitive industries like construction, leisure and hospitality, where demand may have benefited from warm weather over the past month.

Manufacturing employment could also get a boost as customers rushed to stockpile goods in a bid to get ahead of potential price increases sparked by the Iran war. On Monday, manufacturing purchasing manager indexes from S&P Global and the Institute for Supply Management could support that thesis.

April figures on construction spending, also due on Monday, will offer the latest read at the pace of the ongoing data center buildout, a key support both for construction employment and the broader outlook for economic growth.

What Bloomberg Economics Says:

“We believe net hiring troughed early last fall and has been improving gradually ever since. May’s job report should provide more evidence that hiring has picked up, while the unemployment rate is steady. Job openings also likely accelerated, despite persistent fears that AI is reducing demand for workers.”

—Anna Wong, Eliza Winger, Stuart Paul, Chris G. Collins, Alex Tanzi, Troy Durie and Andrew Sacher. For full analysis, click here

Other labor market indicators to watch include April job openings on Tuesday, ADP Research’s monthly report on private-sector hiring and ISM’s services PMI on Wednesday, plus the monthly Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. report on job-cut announcements and weekly data on jobless claims Thursday.

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday will release its Beige Book, offering anecdotal insight into economic conditions around the country. US policymakers enter a quiet period from June 6 ahead of their June 17 rate decision. Appearances before then include regional Fed presidents Neel Kashkari, Beth Hammack, Lorie Logan, Tom Barkin and Mary Daly.

For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for the US Turning north, Canada’s unemployment rate likely held at 6.9% in May, while the economy added 10,000 jobs — a slight improvement after a steep, four-month stretch of losses.

Layoffs remain concentrated in sectors exposed to US tariffs, while job-seekers are taking longer to find work in what Bank of Canada External Deputy Governor Nicolas Vincent recently called a “low-hire, low-fire” environment. Hiring intentions have also been dampened by uncertainty stemming from the Middle East war, which is weighing on business confidence and consumer demand.

Still, conditions may have stabilized slightly as the Iran conflict dragged on through May. With the central bank warning that unpredictability is elevated and policy may need to be “nimble,” Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers will face questions from lawmakers at a parliamentary committee.

Elsewhere, multiple inflation releases from the euro zone to Indonesia to Peru, Chinese business surveys, appearances by policymakers including the Bank of England chief, and new economic forecasts from the OECD will be among the highlights.

Click here for what happened in the past week, and below is our wrap of what’s coming up in the global economy.

Asia

Asia’s calendar begins with closely watched PMIs, offering an early read on whether factory activity in the region is holding up.

China’s official PMIs are expected to remain near the dividing line between expansion and contraction, underscoring the fragile nature of the recovery even as policymakers ramp up support measures.

Several economies, including Indonesia, South Korea, Taiwan and Pakistan, release inflation data, providing an early indication of how the energy shock is feeding into domestic prices.

Japan’s data flow will also attract heavy scrutiny as investors assess whether the economy is strong enough to support the central bank’s slow march toward policy tightening.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda delivers a speech on Wednesday, his final scheduled appearance before the June 16 decision. Given his emphasis on communication, the comments will be closely watched for hints on whether the market is right to mostly price in a hike.

Another focus will be wage figures due on Friday, for signs pay gains are broadening enough to sustain domestic demand. Japan also releases company profits, capital spending and household spending data.

In Australia, Reserve Bank board member Ian Harper will deliver a speech on Tuesday. Attention then shifts to first-quarter gross domestic product on Wednesday after a run of indicators pointed to softer momentum. Company profits, inventories and building approvals will help shape expectations for growth, while Melbourne Institute inflation data and job advertisements on Monday will offer an updated read on price pressures and labor demand.

RBA Governor Michele Bullock will deliver parliamentary testimony on Thursday, less than two weeks before the central bank’s next rate decision.

South Korea’s export data and manufacturing surveys on Monday will be watched for signs the AI-driven investment boom is continuing to offset weakness in more traditional sectors. The country also releases May inflation data on Tuesday.

Across Southeast Asia, inflation and trade figures from Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines will help gauge exposure to commodity price swings and slowing external demand.

Manufacturing PMIs across ASEAN economies are likely to reinforce an uneven recovery, with electronics-linked exporters still benefiting from strong demand while domestic sectors face pressure from high borrowing costs and cautious consumers.

India’s calendar culminates with the Reserve Bank’s rate decision on Friday, with most economists predicting no change. First-quarter GDP comes the same day, after industrial production and PMI earlier in the week. The economy remains one of the world’s strongest performers, though investors are increasingly watching whether domestic demand can continue offsetting weaker external conditions and elevated oil prices.

For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for Asia Europe, Middle East, Africa

European Central Bank officials positioning themselves before a likely rate hike on June 11 have until Wednesday to speak publicly before a pre-meeting blackout period takes effect ahead of the decision.

Among the few on the schedule, hawkish Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel will deliver remarks at the Bank of Korea to kick off the week.

The ECB releases its survey of household inflation expectations the same day, followed on Tuesday by its latest reading of annual consumer-price growth. With marked accelerations seen this month in three of the region’s four biggest economies, an outcome that strays even further above the central bank’s 2% target is likely.

Among other reports on the calendar, Spanish and French industrial data will be published on Thursday and Friday respectively. Euro-area compensation per employee, a key wage indicator, will also come out at the end of the week.

Swiss inflation figures due on Thursday are widely expected to show acceleration, with most economists predicting 0.7%, the highest reading since 2024. But with that outcome firmly within the 0% to 2% range targeted by the Swiss National Bank, it’s unlikely to alarm officials.

In Sweden, meanwhile, the CPIF gauge that the Riksbank focuses on is anticipated to have jumped to 1.3%, while the associated so-called core measure is predicted to show a small increase after unexpectedly showing no increase at all in April.

Turkey publishes consumer-price data, too. That report on Friday will probably show inflation staying above 30%.

It’s a quiet week for data in the UK but no less than three appearances are scheduled from BOE Governor Andrew Bailey, including testimony to lawmakers on Tuesday.

Turning east, Poland’s central bank is poised to keep rates steady the same day, at a time when debate is heating up among policymakers on whether to start raising if inflation continues to climb.

For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for EMEA Latin America

In Peru, May inflation readings for the capital, Lima, look set to rise for a seventh straight month, likely nearing the central bank’s 4.25% key rate.

Peruvian central bankers at their May meeting, while keeping the key rate unchanged for an eighth straight month, signaled their readiness to hike in June should consumer price increases continue moving higher.

Chile’s GDP-proxy figures for April will likely be in line with both March and first-quarter data, as government austerity measures and elevated global energy prices — Chile imports almost all its fuel needs — keep the economy running below potential.

Analysts see Chile’s economy picking up steam in the second half on elevated global copper prices and stronger investment, as well as firming business optimism under President José Antonio Kast.

Five PMI reports for May are due in the coming week, with data through April showing Brazil firmly in expansion territory, a mild expansion continuing in Colombia, and a pronounced contraction in Mexico.

Of the region’s big five economies, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru are forecast to slow from 2025, while Mexico is expected to snap a four-year downshift that saw GDP growth slide to a 0.6% pace last year. That said, Latin America’s No. 2 economy may only muster a modest rebound of 1.1%, according to the most recent estimate from Banxico.

In Colombia, the first-round vote of the presidential election on Sunday initially takes the spotlight, before ceding center stage to May’s consumer price report. The 23% hike in the minimum wage made earlier this year remains a driver, along with price indexation and food and energy-related shocks.

The early consensus has the annual print pushing toward 5.9% from 5.68% in April and may near 6%.

For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for Latin America –With assistance from Swati Pandey, Laura Dhillon Kane, Monique Vanek, Robert Jameson, Mark Evans and Piotr Skolimowski.

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