Europe Draws More LNG as Hormuz Crisis Tightens Global Market

(Bloomberg) — European imports of liquefied natural gas are rising ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter, as prolonged disruptions to flows through the Strait of Hormuz threaten to intensify global competition for the fuel.

Deliveries to the European Union and UK are about 4% lower than a year ago on a 30-day moving average, but have increased since early August, when imports were 30% below last year’s levels, ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show. Over the same period, LNG flows to Northeast Asia fell.

The price arbitrage for US LNG currently favors Europe over Asia, according to traders, providing an incentive for Atlantic cargoes to remain in the region into October. Europe is projected to absorb about a quarter of global LNG supplies in September, up from less than 19% in July, according to Kpler.

The persistent lack of LNG from the Persian Gulf, which provided about a fifth of global supply before the Iran war, sent prices to the highest level since late-2022 earlier this month. The tighter market means greater competition between Europe and Asia, home to the world’s top buyers, for the same flexible supply from the US and elsewhere.

One source of competition for Europe is India, where LNG demand is rising as dry weather curbs hydropower generation and fertilizer plants require more gas. Imports are set to climb 10% in September from a year earlier, according to Kpler. Indian buyers are continuing to snap up spot cargoes, even at prices above their typical purchasing threshold.

Europe has boosted LNG imports since 2022 to refill inventories and meet higher winter demand after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine forced buyers to replace pipeline supplies from Moscow.

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Asian LNG prices traded around $25-$26/mmbtu amid persistent demand from India and some Southeast Asian buyers, said traders Indian Oil purchased an LNG cargo on a DES basis for 2H Oct.-1H Nov. delivery in the $26/mmbtu range PetroVietnam Gas is seeking to purchase an LNG cargo on a DES basis for Oct. 23-30 delivery to the Thi Vai terminal in southern Vietnam Drivers:

If Qatar could ramp up output and increase exports out of the Gulf in coming weeks, and prioritize deliveries to buyers in South Asia, spot LNG prices could face downside pressure, according to BloombergNEF analyst Han Wei “Still, buyers would likely remain cautious as such progress could end prematurely should a re-escalation cycle returns, which happened in previous months,” he said LNG tanker Elisa Aquila, which initially appeared bound for Europe from the US, turned in the Atlantic Ocean last week and is heading south, according to shipping data compiled by Bloomberg European gas-storage levels were ~70% full on Sept. 23, compared with the five-year seasonal average of ~86% China’s 30-day moving average for LNG imports on Sept. 27 was 167k tons, ~12% lower than the same time last year, according to ship-tracking data Estimated flows to all US export terminals were ~19 bcf/day on Sept. 27, up 3.5% w/w: BNEF Buy tender:

(Updates with LNG market details after the sixth paragraph)

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