Stocks Rise on AI, Oil Climbs as Iran Deal Elusive: Markets Wrap
(Bloomberg) — Asian stocks climbed to a record as investors doubled down on the artificial intelligence trade that’s powered global equities to all-time highs. Oil climbed as a US-Iran ceasefire deal remained elusive.
MSCI’s regional equities gauge rose 1%, with gauges in South Korean and Taiwan — bellwethers for AI investments — also touching record highs. Samsung Electronics Co.’s shares surged 6.6%. Sentiment was further buoyed by a 0.4% gain in Nasdaq 100 futures after Wall Street benchmarks closed at records on Friday.
Weighing on the mood, however, was a rally in oil prices. Brent climbed over $93 a barrel as Middle East tensions remained elevated and efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz showed little progress. That sent Treasuries lower across the curve.
The dollar, the haven of choice since the US-Israel war on Iran started, was slightly stronger against all its Group-of-10 peers.
Relentless enthusiasm for the AI trade continues to propel global equities toward record highs, helping lift South Korea’s market to the top of global performance rankings this year. Still, oil’s rebound on Monday after its steepest monthly drop in more than six years is reviving concerns about energy-driven inflation and could complicate the recent recovery in global bond markets.
“The AI trade remains then firmly in focus, although it hardly needs additional attention given the extraordinary price action,” wrote Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group.
Offsetting war worries has been unbounded enthusiasm for sectors touched by the AI trade.
The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index, or SOX, is on pace for its best quarter ever after soaring 69% in the past two months. Chips are the best-performing sector in the S&P 500 this year by a wide margin. Micron Technology Inc.’s shares have more than tripled this year. In Asia, SK Hynix Inc. has soared 260%, and Samsung Electronics Co. is up over 180%.
If anything threatens the upward arc it’s the velocity of the advance itself, according to Laurent Lamagnere, deputy CEO at Alphavalue in Paris.
“There’s a gradual realization across the market that something’s got to give in the AI economy: there’s no way that these massive investments will pay out for every actor,” Lamagnere added. “A correction at one stage would make sense.”
In other corners of the market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury climbed three basis points to 4.47%. Yields on government bonds of similar maturity in Australia and Japan also climbed. Futures of similar-tenor debt in France and Germany declined.
Gold fluctuated to trade around $4,530 an ounce, while Bitcoin led cryptocurrencies higher.
During the weekend, an Iranian ballistic missile strike on a Kuwaiti air base caused minor injuries to several Americans, while Israel stepped up its offensive against the Tehran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. Meanwhile, the US and Iran exchanged messages seeking amendments to a draft agreement that would extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, though it remained unclear whether talks were making much progress.
“Negotiations between the US and Iran remain an outstanding concern and a source of potential volatility going forward,” said Kyle Rodda, senior analyst at Capital.com. “The risk is the price has been misled by propaganda as the Trump administration sells a looming deal but, to this point, the Iranians remain reticent on the matter.”
On Friday, US President Donald Trump posted on social media he was ready to make a “final determination” on a preliminary agreement to extend the ceasefire. Hours later, he left the Situation Room meeting without any decision being made, the New York Times reported.
Amendments to the deal continue to be proposed by both sides, though both the US and Iran might ultimately reject the changes and the deal would collapse, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported Sunday.
“There are likely going to be more setbacks, but the market has already priced an agreement in Iran,” Patrik Lang, chief investment strategist at Geneva-based Global Gate Asset Management. “I wouldn’t expect big market moves, except maybe lower oil, once the deal is announced.”
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures rose 0.2% as of 10:26 a.m. Tokyo time Japan’s Topix rose 0.3% Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.2% Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was little changed The Shanghai Composite was little changed Euro Stoxx 50 futures fell 0.3% Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1% The euro fell 0.1% to $1.1645 The Japanese yen fell 0.1% to 159.48 per dollar The offshore yuan was little changed at 6.7660 per dollar The Australian dollar was little changed at $0.7184 Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 0.1% to $73,537.29 Ether fell 0.1% to $2,002.51 Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.47% Japan’s 10-year yield advanced 3.5 basis points to 2.685% Australia’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 4.88% Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.6% to $89.67 a barrel Spot gold fell 0.2% to $4,531.75 an ounce This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Matthew Burgess.
©2026 Bloomberg L.P.
