Poll shows Swiss voters are undecided on arms exports

Vote on military equipment: the most open one on 29 November Keystone-SDA

Whilst the initiatives on fireworks and tax fairness are enjoying broad support and the proposal to fund the 13th pension payments is likely to be rejected, the outcome of the vote on the War Materiel Act remains to be seen. These are the findings of the YouGov poll.

According to the first opinion poll by the Yougov research institute, published on Wednesday, the proposal to fund the 13th pension payment through VAT would be clearly rejected on November 29. With 51% voting “no” and 39% voting “yes” it is unlikely to stand a chance. Crucially, it would not be accepted in any canton, when a double majority of votes and cantons is required.

This proposal highlights a generational divide. It is supported by 46% of those aged over 60, whilst only 30% of those under 45 would vote “yes”.

The outlook appears more favourable for the Centre Party’s tax initiative for married couples. It is expected to pass with 51% in favour and 29% against, according to YouGov.

The outlook is also positive for the initiative calling for the ban on fireworks. It has 62% in favour, compared with 33% against and 6% undecided, according to the polling organisation.

Military equipment wide open

The outcome is much more uncertain when it comes to the law on military equipment. Thirty-eight per cent of those surveyed are in favour of relaxing export rules, whilst 33% are against, according to YouGov.

This proposal reveals a clear gender divide. Half of men are in favour, compared with just 28%, who are also significantly more likely to be undecided.

According to Yougov, 42% of those surveyed found the War Materiel Act complex. An equally large proportion of respondents felt they were not well informed. This is a key factor explaining the high proportion of undecided voters, with nearly three in ten voters yet to make up their minds.

Yougov Switzerland surveyed 2,949 voters from its panel between 7 and 19 October 2026. The margin of error is plus or minus 1.8 percentage points.

A previous poll, published just over a week ago by the Leewas institute, showed that only the initiative “to restrict fireworks” was likely to pass, with 65% voting “yes”. The other three proposals were expected to be rejected.

+ How we produce news in English
Translated from French, reviewed by an English Department journalist. 

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