Economists predict a weak economic year for Switzerland

Private consumption continues to play an important role. It has recently remained robust. The unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly until mid-2026, before easing somewhat. Keystone / Christian Beutler

The Swiss government’s expert group expects economic growth of 1% – down from 1.1% forecast in December, according to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO). This suggests the Swiss economy is likely to grow below average.

The Swiss Economic Institute (KOF) at the federal technology institute ETH Zurich is also forecasting growth of 1%, but only if oil prices fall again soon. If oil prices remain at current levels for a longer period, growth of just 0.7% is expected for 2026. The forecasts for 2027 are 1.7% and 1.5% under a scenario of higher oil prices.

Oil prices also have a significant impact on inflation: if they remain high, KOF expects inflation to reach 0.6% in 2026 and 0.8% in 2027. If they fall, the figures are expected to be 0.3% and 0.6%.

Private consumption as a pillar

Regardless of oil prices and the war in Iran, the global economy is currently growing only moderately, according to the already cautious outlook for 2026. In the Eurozone – and especially in Germany – there are at least signs of improvement, reflected in the higher forecast for 2027.

‘Switzerland is less vulnerable’

Assessment by Swiss public broadcaster, SRF economics editor Jan Baumann

Switzerland is likely to be spared an economic crisis – despite the conflict in the Middle East – according to forecasts by the Swiss government and KOF. The Swiss economy is less vulnerable to international oil and gas price rises.

Swiss industry is relatively less energy-intensive and the service sector (finance, trade, IT, tourism, etc.) carries more weight. Added to this is the strength of the Swiss franc: it makes it cheaper for companies and consumers to buy abroad, thus dampening inflation.

However, risks remain. For example, the US tariff dispute could flare up again. As a strongly export-orientated economy, Switzerland would then be more exposed than average – unlike the oil price.

Private consumption continues to play an important role. It has recently remained robust. According to KOF experts, this is likely to continue despite a weak labour market – thanks to low inflation and stable wage growth. The unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly until mid-2026, before easing somewhat.

The Swiss government’s savings plans and weak corporate investment, on the other hand, are weighing on the economy. Companies are investing little due to weak earnings and economic policy uncertainty.

Recent tariff relief vis-à-vis the United States has improved the outlook for parts of industry. However, this is partly offset by increased geopolitical uncertainty.

Pressure from the US as a risk

Overall, KOF economists say the risks to the forecast are considerable – and “predominantly” on the downside. In particular, they warn that pressure from the US government to lower pharmaceutical prices could significantly affect the Swiss pharma sector.

It is also unclear whether promised investments by Swiss companies in the US will lead to relocation effects, further dampening investment activity in Switzerland.

The conflict in the Middle East also poses risks – due to oil and gas prices, as well as potential disruptions to supply chains. According to the experts, a further appreciation of the Swiss franc as a result of the crisis could also weaken Swiss exports.

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Translated from German using AI/amva

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