Swiss Population Cap Opponents Gain Lead for First Time in Polls
(Bloomberg) — A proposal to cap Switzerland’s population at 10 million people has lost ground among voters, with opposition to the idea now above 50% for the first time, according to final polls before a national vote this month.
The result on June 14 may still be very close, but the trend is now pointing to a rejection. That will come as relief to the government and businesses, who have opposed the cap because of its potential damage to the economy. The population is already at 9.1 million.
The two polls published Wednesday put support for the so-called “Sustainability Initiative” at 45% and 47%. Opposition has risen to 52% in both reports, the first time that more than half of respondents say they will probably or definitely vote against the proposal.
Swiss citizens vote multiple times a year on various initiatives under the country’s system of direct democracy, and limiting immigration has been a recurring theme in ballots over the years. The Swiss People’s Party, or SVP, the largest in the parliament, has been a key driver of the issue. It’s warned of threats to sovereignty, culture and identity because of uncontrolled immigration, and repeatedly campaigning for curbs.
Some proposals on immigration have passed, most notably a vote in early 2014. However, the government subsequently watered down the original idea to protect economic relations with the neighboring European Union, Switzerland’s biggest training partner.
The latest immigration push, also backed by the SVP, is the population cap. If it passes, the government would have to start restricting arrivals once 9.5 million residents is reached, which could happen in about four years.
Breaching 10 million would trigger more measures, and could eventually lead to Switzerland pulling out of an agreement with the EU allowing the free movement of people. That would also threaten other pacts in key areas like trade and market access.
Pollster gfs.bern said while the broad immigration issue behind the proposal “continues to resonate with voters,” the “actual voting intentions are more determined by the risks of the initiative.”
It’s also worth noting that while Swiss pollsters have a solid prediction record, specifically on immigration-related votes, they haven’t always been right. A 2009 ban on minarets and the 2014 proposal “against mass immigration” both passed despite surveys indicating they would be rejected.
Support in the final days could be affected by a knife attack in the city of Winterthur last week that appears to have been motivated by Islamist ideology. The attack on three people was labeled a “terrorist” incident by authorities, who identified the alleged perpetrator as a Swiss-Turkish dual citizen with ties to local jihadists.
The gfs.bern poll closed before that attack. The other, by LeeWas, ran until the early afternoon on the day of the attack. It said this was “before the extensive media coverage” of the incident.
–With assistance from Levin Stamm.
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