Stocks Drift and Treasuries Slip as Nvidia Looms: Markets Wrap

(Bloomberg) — US stocks struggled for direction and Treasuries slipped as traders held back from taking risks ahead of earnings from Nvidia Corp. and July’s reading of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

S&P 500 futures were little changed. Nasdaq 100 contracts were down 0.2%, with Intuit Inc. leading software makers lower in early trading after a disappointing earnings forecast. Treasury yields rose across the curve, shrugging off a third straight decline in oil. The dollar and Bitcoin were little changed.

With a market value in excess of $5 trillion, Nvidia’s earnings are expected to shape sentiment decisively. The stock has fallen the day after each of its previous four reports, while options markets are pricing in a 5.4% move either way on results expected to show revenue nearly doubling from a year ago.

The headline numbers, however, aren’t where the market’s attention lies. Investors are more interested in hearing what the artificial-intelligence bellwether has to say about spending by its biggest customers, the outlook for demand and a wave of financing deals.

“What’s really going to matter here is the guide,” said Stephanie Niven, portfolio manager at Ninety One. “And it’s not the growth that’s the question, but the rates at which that growth is either accelerating or decelerating.”

Nvidia fell for seven straight sessions before bouncing back on Tuesday. While the recent weakness may lower the bar for the quarter, “it does not materially lower the bar for the outlook,” said Florian Ielpo, head of macro at Lombard Odier Investment Managers.

Hours before Nvidia reports, the US government will publish the latest personal consumption expenditures price index. Economists estimate the index rose 3.6% in July from a year ago, the smallest annual increase in four months.

Elevated Bond Yields

The inflation reading comes as long-dated yields have eased from their highest levels in years, with investors still trading cautiously amid lingering concerns about price pressures, fiscal largesse and heavy borrowing to fund the AI buildout.

“PCE can ease the immediate macro stress, but it cannot alone solve the Treasury-market problem,” said Ulrich Urbahn at Berenberg. “The more durable bullish outcome would be soft core inflation plus calmer oil, evidence of stable demand, and a subsequent decline in long-end yields that doesn’t rely solely on Treasury liquidity measures.”

Europe’s Stoxx 600 gained 0.2%. The region’s bonds outperformed their US peers on softer energy prices.

Oil Extends Decline

Brent crude extended its decline to about 9% for the week as diplomatic efforts to normalize flows through the Strait of Hormuz gained further traction. In the latest development, Iran and Oman are working toward a potential deal to resume shipping through the waterway.

Copper held near a record high, with short-term supplies continuing to look tight despite an easing of a severe market squeeze.

What Bloomberg Strategists Say:

“As we go into Nvidia earnings, the VIX index is showing little sign of fear, sitting just above this year’s low. This juxtaposition signals broader stocks are vulnerable to potential swings. Nvidia remains the world’s most important stock when it comes to moving the needle for investor portfolios.”

— Mark Cranfield, Markets Live strategist. Click here for the full analysis.

Corporate Highlights:

SoftBank Group Corp. is talking with investment banks about a potential $10 billion to $20 billion bond offering to help refinance a loan for its investment in US tech giant OpenAI, according to people familiar with the matter. Victory Capital Holdings Inc. has secured a definitive agreement to acquire First Eagle Investments in a deal that would propel the combined firm’s assets under management to about $571 billion. Zoom Communications Inc. gave a sales outlook for the current quarter that was about in line with analysts’ estimates, disappointing investors hoping for a greater uplift from its expanded suite of products. Existing investors in Shein Global Holdings Ltd. are agreeing to a lock-up on new shares allocated to them in the fast-fashion retailer’s Hong Kong initial public offering, according to people familiar with the matter. Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

S&P 500 futures were little changed as of 7:54 a.m. New York time Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.2% Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were little changed The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.2% The MSCI World Index was little changed Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed The euro was little changed at $1.1668 The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.3627 The Japanese yen was little changed at 159.11 per dollar Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin rose 0.4% to $78,514.2 Ether rose 1.2% to $2,464.8 Bonds

The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced one basis point to 4.64% Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 3.21% Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 5.00% Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.2% to $80.58 a barrel Spot gold fell 0.8% to $4,619.43 an ounce This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

–With assistance from Neil Campling and Will Standring.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.