Stocks Muted Before US Jobs Data, Crude Oil Gains: Markets Wrap

(Bloomberg) — Stocks edged higher as traders held back from making big bets ahead of the key monthly US payrolls report. Oil gained as prospects for a lasting agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remained elusive.

S&P 500 futures rose 0.2%, with the index on track for its biggest weekly gain since April. Contracts on the Nasdaq 100 added 0.5%. Airbnb Inc. jumped 8.8% in premarket trading after boosting its annual revenue forecast on robust global travel demand.

Brent crude climbed 0.4% to $82.78 a barrel, adding to Thursday’s 3.8% rise, after reports that Iran will seek to restrict US and Israeli ships from the Strait of Hormuz and require compensation from countries it considers hostile before allowing passage. Oil pared some of the advance after President Donald Trump said talks with Iran are “moving along.”

Treasuries were steady after the 10-year yield rose seven basis points during the US session as higher oil prices revived concerns that the Federal Reserve may need to keep interest rates elevated. The dollar held gains after posting its biggest advance in two weeks during the New York session, while gold gained 1.5% to breach $4,300 an ounce.

The lack of a deal in the Middle East risks keeping energy prices higher, weighing on a market already volatile amid concerns about the artificial intelligence trade. Attention now turns to Friday’s US employment report for fresh clues on the Fed’s policy path after Chairman Kevin Warsh declined to give clear forward guidance at the last rates meeting. A stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls reading would reinforce the case for higher-for-longer interest rates.

“Kevin Warsh’s ambiguity at the July FOMC means data releases like today’s payrolls carry greater risks of an outsized market reaction,” ING Bank strategists including Frantisek Taborsky wrote in a note. “We are still looking at no Fed cuts and dollar softening going forward.”

Europe’s Stoxx 600 index rose 0.2%, heading for a fourth straight weekly advance as strong earnings lifted the benchmark to a record. Novo Nordisk A/S climbed 4.6% after a US judge threw out an antitrust lawsuit against its blockbuster weight-loss drug.

Among other movers in Europe, Kingspan Group Plc surged to a four-year high after the insulation specialist lifted full-year guidance. Genmab A/S jumped 8.3% after the Danish biotech company reported better-than-expected second quarter profit and boosted its outlook for the full year. Daimler Truck Holding AG fell 4% after reporting results.

Meanwhile, the yen is heading into the end of the week having surrendered nearly half of its intervention-driven gains. The Japanese currency was little changed at about 158.35 per dollar, having climbed to as high as 155.23 earlier in the week.

US economic data released Thursday highlighted the resilience of the labor market, leaving inflation as the key variable for the Fed’s September meeting. Initial jobless claims remained below 200,000 for a third consecutive week.

Traders now turn their attention to Friday’s payrolls report.

What Bloomberg Strategists Say…

“The headline US jobs number fell short of estimates in June, so a significant upward revision of that reading would grab the market’s attention. The balance of risks, with optimism about the Middle East fading and the US labor market resilient, suggests the next leg for yields is higher.”

— Ven Ram, cross-asset strategist. For the full note, click here.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect employers added 80,000 jobs in July, following a weaker-than-expected gain of 57,000 in June. The report is expected to provide the clearest signal yet on whether the labor market is cooling enough to support expectations for Fed easing later this year.

“A weaker top-line figure will be enough to spark rallies in Treasuries even if it’s paired with subdued unemployment, because slowdown risk would begin to make its way onto the curve if fixed-income investors fear that rosters could start contracting,” José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, wrote in a note.

Corporate Highlights:

Allianz SE, the owner of bond manager Pacific Investment Management Co., generated record second-quarter profit on better results in its insurance and asset management businesses SK Hynix Inc. is expanding its own investments into local corporate bonds DeepSeek has resumed its second funding round, seeking close to $8 billion, with Monolith Management in talks to contribute, according to people familiar with the matter. SpaceX shares rose on Thursday as investors digested the release of as many as 911.5 million shares worth about $100 billion from lock-up agreements that had prevented insiders from selling them. Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

S&P 500 futures rose 0.2% as of 5:38 a.m. New York time Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.5% Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were little changed The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.4% The MSCI World Index was little changed Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed The euro was little changed at $1.1526 The British pound fell 0.1% to $1.3440 The Japanese yen was little changed at 158.35 per dollar Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin rose 0.8% to $64,882.7 Ether rose 0.5% to $1,915.74 Bonds

The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 4.67% Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 3.14% Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.94% Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed Spot gold rose 1.6% to $4,307.13 an ounce This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

–With assistance from Anand Krishnamurthy and Cameron Fozi.

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