June 14 vote: Swiss set to reject cap on population, says poll

Is Switzerland overpopulated? Keystone / Urs Flueeler

With less than two weeks to go until a nationwide vote, 52% of respondents are against the “No to ten million!” immigration initiative, according to the second Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (SBC) poll.

On the second issue to be decided on June 14 – tightening the conditions for access to civilian service – supporters and opponents are neck and neck.

The immigration initiative, put forward by the right-wing Swiss People’s Party, seeks to limit Switzerland’s population to ten million by 2050 by drastically restricting immigration. It is currently 9.1 million.

While the yes and no camps were evenly matched at the beginning of May, opponents of the initiative have now gained the upper hand, according to the second SBC poll: 52% of respondents were opposed to the initiative. The no camp has gained five percentage points since the first poll. The initiative still garners 45% support, while 3% remain undecided.

The no vote among the Swiss Abroad, which was already pronounced a month ago, has increased even further: 63% would reject the population cap, 33% are in favour and 4% still have no opinion.

Lukas Golder, a political scientist at the gfs.bern institute which conducted the poll, points out that the Swiss Abroad benefit from the Agreement on the Free Movement of Persons with the EU, which, according to the initiative, will be terminated as a last resort. “The Swiss Abroad are sceptical about the People’s Party’s proposals to limit immigration. They have rejected them all in recent years, as they did in the 2014 vote on the initiative against mass immigration, which was nonetheless accepted by a majority of voters,” Golder points out.

>> Our explainer on the immigration initiative:

The fronts are getting stronger

The initiative continues to polarise opinion: while People’s Party voters almost unanimously supports the party’s text, the left rejects it in the same proportions. The centre of the political spectrum is even more clearly opposed to the proposal than it was a month ago.

Trust in the government also plays an important role: those who distrust the government still largely support the initiative, while those who trust it are clearly opposed. The no vote also gained ground among several population groups: women, people with a high level of education, city dwellers and the French-speaking population.

Opponents of the text also gained ground in terms of arguments. On the whole, the arguments against a population cap were more convincing: a large majority of those polled considered that the bilateral path with the EU should not be jeopardised.

Poll

For the second survey ahead of the federal referendum on June 14, gfs.bern questioned 19,400 voters between May 19-27. The statistical margin of error is +/-2.8 percentage points.

Winterthur attack as unknown

Given these results, gfs.bern expects the text to be rejected. The evolution of opinion should continue to follow the usual pattern, i.e. a loss of support as the campaign progresses. “A protest vote, which led to acceptance of the initiative against mass immigration in 2014, is not set to be repeated,” Golder believes.

However, the polling institute’s political scientists point out that the survey was carried out before the terrorist knife attack in Winterthur on Thursday that injured three people. “This type of event can have a short-term influence on the mobilisation of one of the two camps, by creating a more emotional climate,” Golder says.

Suspense surrounding amendment to Civilian Service Act

The second item to be put to the vote on June 14 follows a more surprising course. This is an amendment to the Civilian Service Act, which would tighten the conditions for access to civilian service in order to guarantee army numbers.

The poll shows that while supporters of the proposal started the campaign with a comfortable lead, they have lost ground and are now neck-and-neck with their opponents. This is an unusual pattern, given that projects put forward by the authorities tend to gain support during the campaign.

Only 48% of those questioned support the legislative amendment, four percentage points fewer than in the first poll; 46% are against and 6% are undecided.

The proportions are similar among the Swiss Abroad, with the difference that there are more undecided voters. This is probably due to the fact that expatriates are not subject to the obligation to serve, but also to the fact that less attention is being paid to this issue in the face of the wide-ranging debate triggered by the immigration initiative.

The project also strongly polarises opinion. The left-wing Greens and Socialist Democrats reject it even more widely than in the first poll. On the other hand, it continues to be overwhelmingly supported by the right-wing Swiss People’s Party and the centre-right Radical-Liberal Party. While support is declining among Centre Party voters, it remains in the majority.

A government project supported by suspicious circles

It is also interesting to note that the amendment to the law is supported more by those who are critical of the government than by those who have confidence in it. An unusual configuration for a project emanating from the authorities.

In terms of arguments, little has changed since the previous survey. Despite the rise of the no camp, the arguments in favour of amending the Civilian Service Act continue to convince a majority of people. In particular, almost three-quarters of the electorate believe that the size of the armed forces should be guaranteed for the long term.

However, the arguments against the proposal have gained ground slightly, but only one of them is convincing for a majority: tightening access to civilian service would harm society, as important care, education and environmental protection activities would disappear.

While the outcome of the vote remains open, the polling institute says the momentum is currently more strongly in favour of the no camp. “This issue is in the shadow of the ‘No to ten million’ initiative. It’s only now that people are starting to take more of an interest in it and are discovering its weaknesses,” says political scientist Martina Mousson.

>> Watch our debate on the issue:

Edited by Samuel Jaberg. Translated from French by AI/ts

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