Natural disasters: insurers brace for second half of 2026

To date, forest fires account for only a relatively small proportion of insured losses in Europe. Globally, however, they are among the fastest-growing natural perils. Keystone-SDA

Insurers have had a relatively quiet first half of 2026 in terms of natural disasters, according to estimates from the Zurich-based reinsurer Swiss Re. However, the cost could rise in the second half of the year.

In the first half of 2026, the cost of insured damage worldwide caused by natural disasters is expected to amount to $42 billion (CHF34 billion), a 16% decrease compared with the average over the past ten years, according to estimates published on Tuesday by the Swiss Re Institute. This is the lowest level for a first half-year since 2020.

In total, insured losses as a whole – which include natural and human-made disasters – are expected to reach $48 billion over the first six months of the year, a figure 15% lower than the ten-year average. Total economic losses, meanwhile, are expected to amount to $107 billion (-9%).

Severe storms remained the main cause of claims, with an estimated cost of $28 billion. However, the damage is below the long-term average. This is because the regions most at risk in the United States, such as Texas, were largely spared, even though storm activity was above average.

At the same time, record temperatures in June and persistent drought created conditions conducive to forest fires in Europe and other parts of the world.

To date, forest fires account for only a relatively small proportion of insured losses in Europe. Globally, however, they are among the fastest-growing natural perils. According to the Swiss Re Institute, inflation-adjusted insured losses from forest fires in Europe have risen by around 8–11% per year since 1970.

Furthermore, the series of earthquakes in Venezuela caused economic damage estimated at $20 billion. Although no reliable estimates are yet available, the low insurance penetration rate in the country suggests that only a small proportion of the losses is covered by insurance.

More claims usually made in the second half of the year

“A first half of the year with fewer claims does not necessarily mean a reduction in risk. A single major hurricane, a significant earthquake or a large-scale forest fire can quickly change the situation,” warns Balz Grollimund, Head of Catastrophes and Perils at Swiss Re.

Historically, an average of 58% of global insured losses relating to natural disasters occur in the second half of the year. Hurricanes in the North Atlantic are the main contributing factor.

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Translated from French, reviewed by an English Department journalist.