Economists expect slower growth in Switzerland this year

The forecasts for inflation rates average 0.7% for 2026 and 0.8% for 2027. Keystone-SDA

Economists in Switzerland have revised their growth forecasts for the current year downwards slightly and are expecting higher inflation, says a report compiled by the KOF Institute at the federal technology institute ETH Zurich.

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Economists surveyed as part of the so-called KOF Consensus Forecast expect real gross domestic product (GDP, seasonally adjusted) to grow by 0.9% in 2026, the institute said on Monday. The forecast is therefore 0.1 percentage points lower than in the March survey and points to below-average growth.

The overall economic outlook for the current year is assessed as slightly less favourable than previously. Among other things, the experts anticipate weaker growth in real fixed capital formation. The growth forecast for 2027 remains at 1.5%.

Thirteen economists took part in the survey. They were able to submit their forecasts by last Wednesday.

Slightly higher inflation

The forecasts for inflation rates average 0.7% for 2026 and 0.8% for 2027. This represents an upward revision of 0.3 percentage points for the current year and 0.2 percentage points for next year.

Expectations for the labour market, however, remained unchanged: for 2026, participants again forecast an average unemployment rate of 3.1%.

As regards foreign exchange, respondents expect the Swiss franc to appreciate against the US dollar and remain stable against the euro over the next twelve months. Against the euro, the consensus figures remain unchanged at 0.91CHF/EUR in three months’ time and at 0.90CHF/EUR in 12 months’ time. Against the US dollar, the expected rates are 0.78 CHF/USD in three months’ time and 0.76 CHF/USD in 12 months’ time.

Translated from German/sub-editing gw