Swiss Voters Reject Population Cap by 55% to 45%, SRF Projects

(Bloomberg) — Switzerland looks to have rejected a population cap of 10 million people, a radical proposal that would have marked an escalation in efforts by wealthy nations around the world to put strict curbs on immigration.

The projection from public broadcaster SRF after voting closed on Sunday puts the expected result at 55% against versus 45% in favor.

Early government results from 17 of the country’s 26 cantons as of 12:37 p.m. Zurich time showed opponents just ahead, with a 53.3% share of the vote. The results so far are from a mix of city and rural cantons, and include Zurich, Lucerne and St. Gallen. Some key rural regions have yet to report their counts.

The ballot on Sunday is the culmination of months of campaigning in which right-wing and anti-immigration groups said Switzerland’s rapidly rising population is causing overcrowding and straining the country’s resources.

They were pitted against forces including big businesses, the government and the majority of parliament, which said a population cap would damage the economy and the country’s wealth.

Companies in particularly had warned that approval of the measure, never tried in a modern economy, would cut off vital access to foreign labor. Their concerns were heightened earlier this year when polls showed that proponents of the population cap were ahead for large parts of the campaign.

Supporters led by the Swiss People’s Party focused their messaging on sustainability, casting arrivals as stretching the Alpine country past its natural limits. They framed the population cap as a solution to high rents, full trains and overbuilding, ideas that connected with many people.

“We knew the vote would be close,” Monika Ruehl, director of main Swiss business lobby Economiesuisse, told SRF. “We still need access to skilled workers from abroad.”

Anti-Immigration Votes

The vote took place under Switzerland’s system of direct democracy, where ballots are held as many as four times a year.

For several decades, many ballots have focused on initiatives to reduce immigration. Most have failed, and even when they are passed, such as happened in a 2014 vote, the government has found ways of watering down proposals.

In addition to warnings from some of Switzerland’s biggest corporates, many economists said the proposal risked causing a significant fallout for growth and prosperity. A government study estimated that output at the end of the century would be some 12% lower if the measure was passed.

Swiss voters’ discomfort with immigration is set to influence important future ballots, including on a package of agreements intended to put relations with the EU on a firmer footing. Ahead of the vote — expected in 2027 or 2028 — lawmakers have proposed to tax immigrants to prevent an overcrowding of the country.

In a separate national ballot, Switzerland looks to have voted for making it harder to replace mandatory military duty by opting for civil service work. The government had proposed tighter rules to ensure sufficient staffing for the army, prompting a controversial debate against the backdrop of rising geopolitical tensions.

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